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The Latest Breaking News from FiveThirtyEight

Experts split on who has '24 "advantage"

One month out from Election Day, the race for the White House and control of Congress is as close as it gets

Salon

Harris leads Trump in the polls – here’s what they really tell us about her chances

Poll data shows that Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in the US presidential election campaign. She has an average vote intention score of 48.2%, compared with Trump’s 45.8%, according to FiveThirtyEight, a website that looks at a range of polls.

The Conversation

Trump, Harris hit must-have states as they clash over economic visions - Roll Call

Vice President Harris proposed a middle-class economic revival, while Donald Trump threatened tariffs as they campaigned in swing states.

Roll Call

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Harris’ post-debate gains sustained in US polls, but Republicans likely to gain Senate control

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.2–46.2. In my previous US politics article last Wednesday, Harris led Trump by 48.9–46.0.

The Conversation

On Black vote, Harris won’t assume 'I’m going to have it because I’m Black’ - Roll Call

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris touted her proposals to help Black voters, but offered no new ideas for the Israel-Hamas war.

Roll Call

Election forecasters explain Trump odds

Election prediction models are not like polls — and Silver's Trump odds are not all that different from others

Salon

Trump-Backed Eric Hovde's chances of winning a Wisconsin Senate seat, according to September polls

The latest surveys still show the Republican trailing incumbent Tammy Baldwin by more than 5 percentage points

Latin Times

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The Trump-Harris debate: Do presidential debates change voter preferences?

Why do presidential debates matter? We look at history and data to find out.

Al Jazeera

Nate Silver gets heat for election model

X users say the FiveThirtyEight founder made some dubious data choices to boost Trump

Salon

Kamala Harris now leads in US polls but state-level data puts race on knife-edge

Analysis of 2024 polling and previous elections involving Donald Trump suggests race is still too close to call

The Guardian - UK

Harris’ win probability falls slightly after Democratic convention and Kennedy withdrawal

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.8–45.0. In my previous US politics article last Sunday, Harris led Trump by 48.8–44.8.

The Conversation

Democrat Rep. Chris Deluzio's Chances Of Winning Tossup Pennsylvania District

He is battling Republican Rob Mercuri in a district that is nearly evenly split between the two parties

International Business Times

MAGA Republican Matt Gaetz's chances of surviving his Florida primary against challenger backed by Kevin McCarthy

The only poll appearing in FiveThirtyEight's aggregator has the incumbent with a solid lead over his main rival, Aaron Dimmock

Latin Times

JD Vance is now the least popular VP candidate in modern history – even below Sarah Palin

Polling averages show that JD Vance has a -9 net popularity rating, worse than Sarah Palin’s low in 2008

The Independent UK

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The Guardian - US

Biden, Harris to attend first joint event since he quit campaign race – as it happened

President and vice-president to attend event in Maryland next Thursday, White House says

The Guardian - US

Polls show Kamala Harris building lead over Trump in 2024 election

Democratic party’s presumptive nominee 2.1 points over Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s national average

The Guardian - UK

On the Edge by Nate Silver review – the art of risk-taking

From card sharps to crypto traders, a statistician asks what we can learn from the people prepared to gamble everything

The Guardian - US

Polls show Kamala Harris moving ahead of Donald Trump in 2024 US election

Recent national head-to-head polls favor Harris, but polls in battleground states present a more mixed picture

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The Conversation

Trump marginally ahead of Harris in US national polls, but Harris improves from Biden’s polls

The United States election will be held on November 5. It’s been a week since President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential contest and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris. No other Democrat is contesting the Democratic nomination, so Harris will be the nominee.

France 24

How polls rate Kamala Harris's chances against Trump

As US voters digest the news that US President Joe Biden will not seek re-election, attention is turning to the chances that his presumptive successor on the Democratic ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris, will beat Republican nominee Donald Trump in November. Although new polls have not been released since Biden’s…

The Conversation

Can Kamala Harris win the US presidency after Joe Biden’s withdrawal? Here’s what the polls say

The United States election will be held on November 5. On Sunday US time, President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential election contest and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris.

Al Jazeera

Vance or Harris: Does a VP pick help win the US election?

Decades of research shows that VP picks rarely swing the vote – in key states or among vital demographics.

Latin Times

Biden staying in the presidential race risks a Trump victory according to Rep. Lloyd Doggett

Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) represents a blue district based in Austin and has served in Congress since 1995.

The Conversation

Latest polling shows UK Labour likely to win landslide at next week’s election, while Biden gains on Trump across the pond

The United Kingdom general election will be held in a week, on July 4. Polls close at 7am AEST on July 5. The 650 members of the House of Commons are elected by first-past-the-post, in which the candidate with the most votes wins the seat.

Roll Call

‘All hands on deck’: Trump vows to help GOP in House races - Roll Call

Donald Trump returned to Capitol Hill for the first time since the Jan. 6 insurrection, and Republicans feted him in a pep rally session.

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