As US voters digest the news that US President Joe Biden will not seek re-election, attention is turning to the chances that his presumptive successor on the Democratic ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris, will beat Republican nominee Donald Trump in November. Although new polls have not been released since Biden’s surprise announcement on Sunday, recent surveys show Harris performs about as well as Biden in a matchup against the former president.
For those looking to pressure Biden to step aside in the 2024 presidential race, his showing in polls was often cited as proof that his candidacy was doomed. But a look at the numbers is inconclusive, with Biden leading Trump in some and trailing him in others, and often within the margin of error. And polls so far show that Harris does not perform statistically better than Biden in a matchup against Trump.
A July 16 Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Trump with 43 percent support and Biden at 41 percent, within the poll’s 3-point margin of error. Matched against Harris, she and Trump were tied at 44 percent.
A FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls update on July 16 showed Biden in the lead, with a 53 percent chance of winning in November to Trump’s 46 percent.
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted a few days later (July 16-18) put Trump ahead by 5 points, with support at 52 percent to Biden’s 47 percent (margin of error +/- 2.7 points). Trump also led against Harris by 3 points, 51 percent to 48 percent.
Since these polls were all conducted in the days following the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump – and as the Republican National Convention was in full swing – it is unclear how much of Trump’s lead might have been due to a temporary post-shooting rise in his numbers or a GOP convention “bounce”.
And with a Harris candidacy now looking much more likely than when survey respondents were presented with a mere hypothetical, future polls are likely to see a shift – one way or the other.
Swing state uncertainty
A great irony of Biden’s presidency is that widespread support for his policies did not translate into widespread support for his candidacy. In a blind YouGov survey asking voters if they agreed with a policy, without revealing whether it came from Trump or Biden, Biden’s proposals were overwhelmingly more popular – 27 of 28 were supported by more people than opposed them, while this was true for only nine of 28 Trump policies.
As the candidate who is likely to continue down a similar path, the legacy of Biden’s policies could both help and hurt Harris’s chances.
Her job approval rating is roughly equal that of Biden, with about 38.5 percent approval for both the president and vice president, according to FiveThirtyEight averages for July 17-18.
According to a July 16-18 poll of swing states by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Harris has a slightly better approval rating than Biden in five key states (Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin). Biden’s approval is higher in Georgia and Michigan, but he and Harris are tied in Pennsylvania.
Both Democrats lead Trump by 5 points in Virginia but trail the former president by 6 points in Georgia, according to a July 17 FAU/Mainstreet poll.
A July 15-16 poll from InsiderAdvantage, which leans to the right, found Trump leading Biden by 7 points in Nevada but leading Harris by more – a full 10 points. In Arizona, Trump led Biden by 5 points and Harris by 6 (margin of error +/- 3.52 percent).
Will demographics matter?
While both Harris and Biden enjoy the support of a majority of Black voters, an NBC News poll showed that Harris outperforms Biden with 78 percent support (Trump gets 14 percent) to Biden’s 69 percent (to 12 percent for Trump).
Trump does slightly better with White voters when up against Harris rather than Biden, leading Harris by 16 points and Biden by 14. The former president, and the Republican Party overall, relies largely on the support of White voters without a college degree and evangelical Christians.
The poll indicated a negligible difference between Harris and Biden among other demographics, including among Latino voters or when factoring in age or gender.
Party affiliation appeared to matter considerably more than demographics, with registered Republican voters who said they were dissatisfied with Trump preferring the former president to Biden by 46 points (63 percent to 17 percent). But that number went up by 10 points when Harris was the Democratic contender, with 73 percent supporting Trump.
Harris did better among third-party voters, where Trump and Biden were virtually tied (32 percent to 31 percent). Harris garners 46 percent support to Trump’s 39 percent among this segment of the electorate in a two-person matchup.
The diversity factor
While polls show no clear advantage for Harris compared to Biden, at 59 she also does not have the perceived weaknesses of a Biden candidacy; her ascension would put to bed any age concerns at the top of the ticket. And as only the second female to run for president – and the first Jamaican-South Asian to do so – her candidacy might just galvanise the younger progressive voters on whom the Democratic Party so often depends.
But Republicans are hoping those same attributes will work against her. Right-wing pundits often baselessly disparage women or minorities in high positions as “DEI hires” – a reference to “diversity, equity and inclusion” that belittles an individual’s accomplishments by suggesting he or she was hired to fill a race or gender quota. Despite her successful career as a prosecutor (district attorney, attorney general) and then as a senator, Harris has already seen more than her share of these claims in both the media and from Trump allies.
None of the polls conducted so far can predict the enthusiasm, or lack thereof, that might characterise a Harris candidacy. She will only officially become the candidate at the Democratic National Convention (August 19-22) if she is supported by a majority of state delegates against any possible Democratic challengers. But so far things seem to be moving in Harris’s direction: six states have already pledged their delegates to her, while grassroots donations spiked in the hours after Biden’s withdrawal, bringing in $50 million and counting.
