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The Latest Breaking News from FiveThirtyEight

Polling in the age of Trump highlights flawed methods and filtered realities

The results of the 2024 presidential election cement a trend in American politics: Polls cannot accurately gauge support for Donald Trump. In the 2016, 2020 and now 2024 elections, polls consistently underestimated Trump’s support by an average of 2.3 percentage points.

The Conversation

US election results: How did opinion polls undercount Trump voters again?

It’s the third consecutive election in which opinion polls have underestimated Trump’s support.

Al Jazeera

Battle of the pollsters: ‘Nostradamus’ bashes rival after both election predictions flopped

Across the board, pollsters failed to predict Trump would win by a comfortable margin

The Independent UK

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US election: Did Trump gain Latino vote despite ‘floating garbage’ jibe?

Long held up as a Democrat base, the Latino vote reflects a truer picture of a community that refuses political labels.

Al Jazeera

Who's winning the swing states? Live 2024 battleground results

Here’s a breakdown of the battleground states to watch and the times their polls close.

Fortune

US election: How have the seven swing states voted in the past?

Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada hold the keys to the White House.

Al Jazeera

US election: It’s voting day – What polls say; what Harris, Trump are up to

Harris and Trump spent the eve of Election Day campaigning across swing states in a final push for votes.

Al Jazeera

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US presidential election remains a toss-up, and a guide to US election day in Australia

The United States presidential election will be held Tuesday, with results coming in from Wednesday morning AEDT. I have a guide to Wednesday below that includes when polls in the key states close and other information.

The Conversation

Forecasters: Dems in "stronger position"

Democrats are running strong challengers in a handful of districts that could swing control of the House

Salon

US election: 3 days left – What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

Harris and Trump are locked in a dead heat, battling for control of Midwestern swing states.

Al Jazeera

Trump’s slight lead in Pennsylvania could give him Electoral College win; Biden a drag on Harris

The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.5, a slight gain for Trump since Monday, when Harris led by 48.6–47.4. Harris’ national lead peaked on…

The Conversation

US election polls: Trump vs Harris – who’s leading the race?

With just days to go until Election Day, Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race.

Al Jazeera

US election: 10 days left – What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

Harris to campaign with Michelle Obama in Michigan while Trump will have stops in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Al Jazeera

Harris nudges ahead of Trump in the polls – but could the economy prove her downfall?

The current US vice-president and Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, appears to have nudged ahead of her Republican rival, Donald Trump, in the race to the White House.

The Conversation

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Evening Standard

US election 2024 poll tracker: Who is ahead - Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

Winning swing states will be key for either candidate on November 5

Fortune

Donald Trump is eking ahead in the polls as the 'excitement's over' for Kamala Harris

After surging in the polls after Harris’s dramatic entry into the race, the election tightens.

Al Jazeera

US election: 14 days left — What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are campaigning through key battleground states as the election race remains tight.

Latin Times

Kamala Harris Takes Major Leap Over Trump in Key Voting Group, Poll Shows

The vice president has a 24-point lead among voters who made up their minds in the past month, a new poll shows

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Al Jazeera

Trump vs Harris: Who is leading in US election polls?

Al Jazeera tracks the latest polls with less than three weeks to go before US voters choose a new president on November

Latin Times

Kamala Harris' Chances of Sweeping the Swing States With 3 Weeks Left to Election Day

The vice president is ahead in four battleground states. However, all margins are extremely slim and Trump seems to be gaining ground

Latin Times

Donald Trump's Chances of Sweeping the Swing States With 3 Weeks Left to Election Day

The former president is ahead in three of the seven largest swing states. However, all margins are extremely slim and Trump seems to be gaining ground

The Conversation

Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.5, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led by 49.3–46.2.

Al Jazeera

Harris embarks on media interview blitz as polls show her tied with Trump

As many as a quarter of US voters say they want to learn more about the vice president ahead of November’s election.

Salon

Experts split on who has '24 "advantage"

One month out from Election Day, the race for the White House and control of Congress is as close as it gets

The Conversation

Harris leads Trump in the polls – here’s what they really tell us about her chances

Poll data shows that Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in the US presidential election campaign. She has an average vote intention score of 48.2%, compared with Trump’s 45.8%, according to FiveThirtyEight, a website that looks at a range of polls.

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