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The Latest Breaking News from FiveThirtyEight

Experts: Red trickle vindicates polling

After 2016, the MAGA crowd claimed they had bested the polls; in 2022, the polls bested the MAGA crowd

Salon

Democrats perform better than expected in US midterms, but both Senate and House remain in doubt

The US midterm elections occurred Tuesday, with polls closing from late Wednesday morning AEDT. There are many results still outstanding, but Democrats have gained Pennsylvania in the Senate, and appear likely to hold Arizona, while Republicans will probably hold Wisconsin.

The Conversation

Voices: What midterm election night polls told us — and what they can’t predict

Early data paints a dire picture for Democrats in the House, while control of the Senate is likely to be decided by three races

The Independent UK

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Here's how election deniers have fared in key midterm races

If elected, these candidates would have powerful perches from which to disrupt future elections.

Axios

US midterms: why gambling markets often predict elections more accurately than polls

This year’s US midterms are on a razor’s edge.

The Conversation

Trump favourite Kari Lake is one of hundreds of midterms candidates who claim the 2020 election was stolen. She could win in Arizona

Arizona — where an election-denying former TV anchor is taking on the current secretary of state — is among a handful of states that could shift the balance of the Senate towards the Republicans, and set the stage for a Trump 2024 run.

ABC News

Supercomputer issues Manchester United prediction in Europa League after Barcelona draw

Erik ten Hag and his squad were drawn against Spanish giants Barcelona in the Europa League play-offs.

Manchester Evening News

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US midterm elections: Who is tipped to win and how soon will we know the results?

More than 1,200 candidates are running for seats in the House of Representatives and US Senate. Here's why the midterms influence if Donald Trump could run for president in 2024.

ABC News

Victory for ‘true Maga warriors’ would tighten Trump grip on Republican party

Opinion polls suggest late surge in support for Trump-endorsed nominees who have embraced his lie about election fraud

The Guardian - US

With two days until US midterm elections, Republicans will probably win control of both chambers of Congress

The United States midterm elections will be held Tuesday. Owing to time differences, polls will not start closing until late Wednesday morning AEDT.

The Conversation

Discovered by Oprah, elevated by Trump, Dr Mehmet Oz could triumph over John Fetterman in Pennsylvania

With election day looming in the US midterms, all eyes are on swing state Pennsylvania, where a Trump-backed celebrity doctor is closing in on his progressive opponent in a key Senate race.

ABC News

Republicans appear better positioned than ever ahead of midterms

History shows that the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm, and Democrats seem likely to follow that pattern

The Guardian - US

Abortion might help Democrats in the midterms in two major ways

If young pro-choice voters turn out in higher numbers than forecast models are expecting, it could provide a bounce to Democrats in key races

The Guardian - US

The contrarian case for Democratic optimism

The conventional wisdom isn't always correct.

Axios

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The Independent UK

Voices: This is how much abortion will actually affect the midterm election results

Polling is mixed on whether Americans are changing their votes after the overturn of Roe v Wade. It’s worth looking at the numbers closely to parse out what’s really happening

The Independent UK

Voices: Republicans have convinced voters inflation is Biden’s fault — even though they have no plan to solve it

Polls show that the GOP has successfully managed to make inflation a deciding issue, without having a clear policy for combating it. What this implies about the future is scary

USA Today Sports Media Group

Updated College Football Playoff odds from FiveThirtyEight after initial CFP rankings release

Updated College Football Playoff predictions from the folks at FiveThirtyEight. What do you think of where Ohio State stands?

USA Today Sports Media Group

Rams’ playoff odds have sunk to 23% after 3-4 start

The Rams began the season with a 65% chance to make the playoffs, but their odds have sunk to 23% after starting 3-4

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The Guardian - US

Liz Cheney backs second Democrat, picking Ryan over Vance for Ohio Senate

Leading anti-Trump Republican has already endorsed Democrat Elissa Slotkin for re-election in Michigan

Tribune News Service

Biden arrives in South Florida. He’s going after Republicans as threat to Medicare and Social Security

President Joe Biden met with supporters at a Hallandale Beach community center on Tuesday afternoon, touting Democratic support for Social Security and Medicare.

Tribune News Service

Biden calls DeSantis ‘Donald Trump incarnate’ as he campaigns in South Florida for Crist and Demings

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — President Joe Biden delivered a searing indictment of Republican policies on Tuesday, charging they’re a threat to Social Security and Medicare, then delivering a closing argument aimed at mobilizing Florida voters to turn out for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist and Senate candidate Val Demings.

McClatchy Washington Bureau

Millions of early votes have been cast. How do the numbers compare to past elections?

WASHINGTON — With less than two weeks to go before the midterm elections, millions of voters across the country have already cast their ballots.

Leeds Live

Leeds United's win at Liverpool sees supercomputer revise relegation verdict

Leeds climbed out of the drop zone with their first win since August at Anfield on Saturday.

Nottingham Post

Nottingham Forest predicted Premier League finish compared with rivals Leicester City, Wolves and Leeds United

Latest Nottingham Forest news from NottinghamshireLive as Reds' Premier League fate is calculated

Manchester Evening News

Supercomputer predicts Man United chances of winning Europa League after Cristiano Ronaldo return

Manchester United are not the favourites to win the Europa League according to the supercomputers at FiveThirtyEight.

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