WASHINGTON — With less than two weeks to go before the midterm elections, millions of voters across the country have already cast their ballots.
The results of the Nov. 8 election will determine whether Republicans reclaim the majority from Democrats in either the U.S. House or Senate, possibly setting up gridlock in Washington with President Joe Biden in the White House.
How does early voting data compare to recent elections?
All but four U.S. states allow all voters access to in-person early voting, with an average of 23 days afforded to do so, according to a 2022 analysis from the National Conference of State Legislatures. This means most registered voters have at least two weeks to vote early if they would like to.
As a result, at least 9 million Americans have already cast their ballots for the midterm elections, according to TargetSmart, a political data analytics company based in Washington, D.C.
So far, nearly 2 million more ballots have been submitted than at the same point in the last midterm election, which took place in 2018. As of Oct. 25, 9,056,762 ballots have been turned in, compared to about 7.7 million by the same time in 2018 — a 15% increase.
This slight uptick follows a September NBC poll which found voter enthusiasm ahead of the midterms was at an “all-time high.” Two months before the 2018 midterms 58% of respondents expressed “high” interest in the elections, while 64% had “high” interest heading into the 2022 midterms.
When broken down by party, Democrats, with two weeks left before the election, have outperformed Republicans in early voting, with 4.9 million ballots submitted by Democrats and 3.2 million submitted by Republicans. It is crucial to note, however, that a voter’s party affiliation does not necessarily indicate whom they will vote for.
There has also been a larger proportion of Democrats voting early compared to 2018 and 2020. Two weeks out from the 2022 midterms, 54% of early votes have been cast by Democrats and 36% have been cast by Republicans.
In 2020, Democrats outpaced Republicans in early voting by 52% to 37%, while Republicans led Democrats in 2018’s early voting at the same period by a razor-thin margin of 46% to 44%.
In all three states rated as “toss-ups” in the Senate by FiveThirtyEight, a polling analysis website, Democrats have surpassed Republicans in early voting, according to TargetSmart.
And how does early voting two weeks ahead of this year’s midterms in those states compare to those ballots cast by the same time in 2020?
This year in Pennsylvania, 73% of the the half-million early votes were cast by Democrats, while 23% were cast by Republicans, compared to 68% cast by Democrats and 25% by Republicans in 2020.
In Georgia this year, 51% of votes were submitted by Democrats and 41% were submitted by Republicans. It was much closer in 2020, when 47% of early votes two weeks ahead of the election were cast by Democrats and 45% by Republicans.
And this year in of Nevada, 53% were cast by Democrats and 39% were cast by Republicans, according to TargetSmart, which is nearly identical to the 54% of early votes from Democrats and 38% from Republicans in run-up to the 2020 presidential election.
This year’s early voting numbers, despite outstripping numbers from 2018, pale in comparison to the roughly 33 million votes submitted by the same time in 2020, according to TargetSmart. Presidential elections garner stronger voter turnout than midterm elections, and early voting also became a more popular option in 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Pew Research Center.
But experts warn against reading too much into this year’s early voting numbers.
“As these early-vote totals grow, some data analysts are slicing and dicing the numbers, claiming that the early vote gives predictive insights into November’s results,” David Byler, a data analyst and columnist for The Washington Post, wrote in an Oct. 25 article. “Be skeptical. Election forecasts grounded in the early vote are plagued by problems: They have a poor track record, they lend themselves to conflicting interpretations, and the pandemic’s aftereffects muddy the data.”
As of Oct. 26, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 54% chance to maintain control of the Senate, while Republicans have an 82% chance of taking the House.
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