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The Latest Breaking News from The Poll Bludger

South Australian Labor gains Black at byelection with big swing

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black by a 60.6–39.4 margin over the Liberals, a 13.3% swing to Labor since the 2022 state election. Primary votes were 46.5% Labor (up 8.4%), 32.3% Liberals (down…

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Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained?

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.9–46.0. In my previous US politics article on September 9, Harris led Trump by 48.7–46.2.

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Harris’ lead dips in national US polls and it’s very close in the key states

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.7–46.2. In my previous US politics article on August 30, Harris led Trump by 48.8–45.0.

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Kamala Harris’ polls surge stalls ahead of Democratic National Convention

The US presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 47.1–44.6% with 4.2% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In my previous US politics article last Wednesday, Harris led Trump by 46.8–43.7%.

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Labor and Albanese’s slide continues in Resolve poll, as major parties tied

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted July 10–13 from a sample of 1,603, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 by 2022 election preference flows, a one-point gain for the Coalition since June by my calculations.

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Labour landslide at UK election; Biden drops in US polls after debate

The 650 United Kingdom House of Commons seats are elected by first past the post (FPTP), in which the candidate with the most votes wins the seat.

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Dutton snatches preferred PM lead in Resolve poll as draft redistributions finished

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted June 11–15 from a sample of 1,607, gave the Coalition 36% of the primary vote (steady since the May post-budget Resolve poll), Labor 28% (down one), the Greens 14% (up two), One Nation 6% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents…

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Labor slumps in Newspoll to a tie with Coalition, with Albanese also down

A national Newspoll, conducted June 3–7 from a sample of 1,232, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the post-budget Newspoll, three weeks ago. This is Labor’s worst position in Newspoll since last November, following the fallout from the defeat of the…

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Labor slightly helped by Victorian and WA draft federal redistributions

The electoral commission today released draft boundaries from a federal redistribution of Victoria and Western Australia. In WA, the new seat of Bullwinkel was created, while in Victoria, Higgins was abolished.

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Freshwater national poll holds steady at a 50--50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus

A national Freshwater poll for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a Freshwater poll for The Financial Review in mid-December.

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Labor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50--50 tie

A national Newspoll, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago that had a 50–50 tie. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation…

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Labor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it's close in Queensland

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9%…

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Extra senators for ACT and NT will benefit left but increase malapportionment

The Poll Bludger has summarised the final report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) that was released Monday. The most contentious recommendation is that the number of senators for both the ACT and the Northern Territory be increased from two to four.

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Labor loses four points in two Newspolls to slump to a 50--50 tie

A federal Newspoll, conducted November 20–24 from a sample of 1,216, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50 after preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (down four), 13% Greens (up one), 6%…

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Labor still far ahead in Resolve poll, in contrast to other recent polls

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted November 1–5 from a sample of 1,602, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (down two since October), the Coalition 30% (down one), the Greens 13% (up one), One Nation 7% (steady), the UAP 2% (steady), independents 9% (steady) and others 4%…

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Albanese and Labor slump to worst position in Newspoll since 2022 election

A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice referendum. This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Newspoll since the 2022 federal…

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Labor recovers in Morgan after post-referendum slump; LNP leads in Queensland

A federal Morgan poll, conducted October 22–29 from a sample of 1,375, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, a 3.5-point gain for Labor since the previous week. An earlier poll, taken in the week after the Voice referendum was heavily defeated, was the first by any pollster this term to give…

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Voice to Parliament referendum has been heavily defeated nationally and in all states

The Voice to Parliament referendum has failed convincingly after the ABC projected large victories for the “no” side in the national vote and all states.

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LNP takes lead in Queensland Resolve poll, but Labor still far ahead in Victoria

The Queensland state election will be held in October 2024. A Resolve poll for The Brisbane Times, conducted from May to August with a sample of 947, gave the Liberal National Party 38% of the primary vote (up five since January to April), Labor 32% (down three), the Greens 11%…

The Conversation

Voice support slips again in national Resolve poll; massive swing in WA puts Libs ahead

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted July 12–15 from a sample of 1,610, had “no” to the Indigenous Voice to parliament leading in a forced choice by 52–48 (51–49 in June). Initial preferences were 42% “no” (up two), 36% “yes” (down six) and 22% undecided (up five). I…

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Labor gains in Newspoll 2PP despite primary slide; LNP wins Fadden byelection easily

A federal Newspoll, conducted July 12–15 from a sample of 1,570, gave Labor a 55–45 lead after preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger.

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Voice support slumps in Essential poll; LNP leads in Queensland

An Essential poll, conducted July 5-9 from a sample of 1,125, had “yes” to the Indigenous Voice to parliament leading by 47-43, with 10% undecided. There has been a methods change from previous Essential polls that had no undecided option.

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Support for the Voice to Parliament slumps in Newspoll, along with Albanese's ratings

In this week’s federal Newspoll, conducted with a longer-than-usual fieldwork period (June 16–24) from a larger-than-usual sample of 2,303 people, the “no” vote to the Indigenous Voice to Parliament took the lead by 47–43%, reversing a “yes” lead of 46–43% three weeks ago. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger.

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Labor maintains large Newspoll lead, but support for Voice slumps

A federal Newspoll, conducted May 31 to June 3 from a sample of 1,549, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged from the last Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (steady), 34% Coalition (steady), 12% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (down one) and 10% for all Others…

The Conversation

Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls

A federal Newspoll, conducted April 19-22 from a sample of 1,514, gave Labor a 56-44 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Labor (steady), 33% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (down one) and 11% for all…

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