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The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Why getting the numbers right isn’t enough for pollsters to be credible in today’s polarized climate

President Donald Trump launched his second term with a series of executive orders, asserting his authority more decisively than in 2017. His moves, shaped directly by unfiltered public opinion, align – for now – with what many Americans want. Pollsters are tracking this public sentiment in real time.

The Conversation

ABC News staffers ‘crying and upset’ amid sweeping layoffs that gutted GMA3 and shuttered FiveThirtyEight

‘It's a very somber scene in the building—people crying and upset,’ a network staffer said. ‘Lots of panicked phone calls between staffers trying to make sense of it’

The Independent UK

Out-of-date polls to wrong aid amounts: factchecking Trump’s Congress address

The president’s marathon address to a joint session of Congress was littered with false claims he’s been corrected on but continued to repeat

The Guardian - US

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Trump Gaza Is Finally Here

Plus: The House spending bill passes, Elon Musk's intelligence, Aella in The Atlantic, and more...

Reason

The Cultural Consequences of Trump's Victory

Plus: A listener asks the editors to name their least favorite national emergency from the list of those currently in effect.

Reason

Facebook's New Free Speech Policy Shows Business Getting Back to Business

It’s the latest company to step back from dangerous alliances with political factions.

Reason

Meta’s move to end fact-checking reflects turn toward freewheeling internet

Mark Zuckerberg’s invocation of ‘cultural tipping point’ comes as number of fact-checking initiatives has plateaued.

Al Jazeera

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Polymarket users are hoping to profit from the devastation in California, betting on how far the deadly blaze will spread

The betting pools for some predictions have exceeded $100,000.

Fortune

Nate Silver on "The Rise and Fall of 'Fact-Checking'"

"'Fact-checkers' as the high priests of journalism had a political beginning at Facebook — and have met a political end."

Reason

Joe Pardons Hunter

Plus: Media figures and politicians react to the news, Donald Trump appoints Kash Patel to head the FBI, and more...

Reason

Democrats slam Kamala Harris’ ‘self-congratulatory’ review of election defeat

The vice president and her top team are accused of a stunning lack of self-relection and failing to listen to voters

The Independent UK

Polls underestimated Trump support for third election in a row

Chance, demographics or even people reluctant to voice support for Trump could all be reasons for discrepancy

The Guardian - US

Bullish on DOGE

Plus: ICC goes after Netanyahu, Biden's questionable competence, Gaetz's sexcapades, and more...

Reason

Silver: Retire, Biden

The pollster thinks Kamala Harris should lead for the last few month's of the Biden presidency

Salon

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Latin Times

Trump Rages After Dems Successfully Use Republican SpaceX Trip to Appoint Biden Judges: 'No More Judges'

Senate Democrats confirmed more of President Biden's judicial nominees, despite Trump's efforts to block new appointments before January.

International Business Times

Pollster Nate Silver Calls On Biden To Resign Immediately, Let Harris Serve As President: 'It's A Very Difficult Job'

Pollster Nate Silver has urged President Joe Biden to resign immediately and let Vice President Kamala Harris take over for the final weeks of his term.

Latin Times

Pollster Nate Silver Calls on Biden to Resign Immediately, Let Kamala Serve as President: 'It's a Very Difficult Job'

Pollster Nate Silver has urged President Joe Biden to resign immediately and let Vice President Kamala Harris take over for the final weeks of his term.

The Independent UK

Concerns about Biden’s mental and physical acuity have plagued Biden’s campaigns and presidency

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The Guardian - UK

TechScape: Betting markets come for everything – and the FBI comes for a betting market

This week in tech news, online predictors are riding high after a slew of accurate US election wagers. Plus, Trump and Musk try to weaponize the communications regulator•

The Conversation

Better but not stellar: Pollsters faced familiar complaints, difficulties in assessing Trump-Harris race

An oracle erred badly. The most impressive results were turned in by a little-known company in Brazil. A nagging problem reemerged, and some media critics turned profane in their assessments.

Salon

Nate Silver predicts Democratic comeback

Silver compared Trump's win to George Bush's victory in 2004, which was a turning point for the Democratic Party

Latin Times

Top Pollster Finds 'Hidden' Signs of a Comeback for Democrats Despite Republican Win, Predicts 'Challenging' Term for Trump

One of the only pollsters to predict the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election somewhat correctly, Nate Silver, has stated that he sees a variety of challenges lying ahead for President-elect Donald Trump, further predicting positive outcomes for the Democratic Party.

Salon

Blue-state governors are fighting back

Governors like Newsom, Pritzker and Whitmer won't roll over for the Trump agenda. Can states' rights save us?

The Conversation

Coalition retains narrow Newspoll lead as Dutton gains; where Democrats may have erred in US election

A national Newspoll, conducted November 4–8 from a sample of 1,261, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged since the previous Newspoll in early October. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (up two), 33% Labor (up two), 11% Greens (down one), 5% One Nation (down two) and 11% for all Others…

Fortune

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan says he founded the popular prediction market from his bathroom

“Little did I know Polymarket was going to change the world," the 26-year-old founder said of his makeshift setup.

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