The Latest Breaking News from Nate Silver

Trump will rally Thursday evening in Arizona and Nevada; Harris to appear with Obama, Springsteen in Georgia.

Though Silver's forecast favors Trump's chances the most, nearly all posters show a rightward shift

The Labor Party has won a seventh consecutive ACT election.

The vice president is ahead in four battleground states. However, all margins are extremely slim and Trump seems to be gaining ground

The former president is ahead in three of the seven largest swing states. However, all margins are extremely slim and Trump seems to be gaining ground

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The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.5, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led by 49.3–46.2.

Nationwide polls are often of limited relevance, considering the unique structure of the US electoral system. To gain a better understanding of the upcoming presidential election, we need to focus on surveys conducted in the pivotal battlegrounds – the so-called swing states. After the missteps in previous elections, it’s hard…

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