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The Latest Breaking News from MRP

Coalition leading narrowly in four polls and would likely win an election held now

A national Newspoll, conducted February 10–14 from a sample of 1,244, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (up one).

The Conversation

Labour urged to defend workers’ rights bill as poll shows huge public support

Exclusive: Poll reveals 72% of UK voters favour ban on zero-hours contracts, including majority of Tory and Reform supporters

The Guardian - UK

‘Move closer to Europe – not Trump’ voters tell Starmer in major UK poll

Pressure growing on Labour to improve trade with EU as Rachel Reeves admits Brexit damaged UK

The Guardian - UK

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Cardo Sponsors Motorcycle Mental Health Charity, Links Riding and Wellbeing

I don't know if the role motorcycling plays in keeping many riders' mental health in check is taken seriously enough. After 10 years of therapy and silent meditation retreats, riding motorcycles has helped my mental health arguably more than anything, and a recent survey indicates that I'm probably not alone…

RideApart

Newspoll returns to a tie after Coalition leads, but Labor has worst result this term in Resolve

A national Newspoll, conducted December 2–6 from a sample of 1,258, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll in early November. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others…

The Conversation

Behich facing suspension, Bulls assistant banned

Melbourne City captain Aziz Behich has been cited for an incident involving Melbourne Victory's Nikos Vergos, while Macarthur's assistant coach faces a big ban.

AAP

Federal Newspoll still tied but Albanese’s ratings up; Queensland Newspoll has big LNP lead

A national Newspoll, conducted September 16–20 from a sample of 1,249, had a 50–50 tie for the third consecutive time. Since the last Newspoll three weeks ago, primary votes were 38% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up one), 6% One Nation (down one) and 12% for all…

The Conversation

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Fewer than one in five UK voters are ‘hard nimbys’, finds survey

Pro-building Labour group hopes study will spur on major planning reform and government drive to build 1.5m homes

The Guardian - UK

Election 2024 polls were wide of the mark on Labour’s margin of victory – this is what may have happened

The 2024 UK election campaign was dominated by discussion of the polls, from start to finish. This was partially because of the sheer volume of polls being published. We had more MRP (multi-level regression post-stratification) polls than ever before, many giving quite different pictures of the size of Labour’s lead.

The Conversation

A Labour landslide, Tory turmoil and Green shoots. What a night

In today’s newsletter: Whether it was a new government, the success of independents, or a farewell to Truss, in the end this election had something for everyone

The Guardian - UK

Tories to slump to just three London seats, Survation election poll finds

London minister Greg Hands tipped to squeak home in Chelsea & Fulham amid private schools row

Evening Standard

Reform UK candidates who could be about to enter parliament

Nigel Farage is the party’s best hope of winning a seat but it could win up to 18, including for chair Richard Tice

The Guardian - UK

Sunak in last-ditch attempt to rally Conservative voters with threat of a Labour ‘supermajority’

Rishi Sunak insists he has not given up, with final 48-hour push for votes to ‘stop a Labour supermajority’ – as leading pollster argues polls have been wrong

The Independent UK

General Election 2024: Who will win in Rishi Sunak's seat of Richmond and Northallerton

PM is defending a huge majority but even that isn’t totally safe in the direst MRP projection

Evening Standard

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The Guardian - UK

Don’t dismiss the MRP polls – they’re key to defeating the Tories

Letters: Adrian Carter is using polling to help him vote tactically. Plus a letter from Keith Flett

The Conversation

After 14 years in opposition, Labour’s cabinet will be inexperienced – is that a problem?

It’s 100 years since the Labour party took office for the first time, back then with a minority government. Now, in 2024, it looks set to win an election with what will possibly the largest majority in history.

The Independent UK

Meet Rishi Sunak’s Labour Party opponent who hopes to bring the PM down

Exclusive: The Labour candidate hoping to become the first person to defeat a sitting prime minister explains why rural England is abandoning the Tories

The Guardian - UK

Sleazy, inept and unbelievable – this sorry Sunak campaign sums up the Tory years

The seedy betting scandal is the latest self-inflicted blow to the Conservatives’ election effort

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The Guardian - UK

No way is Britain’s general election a done deal. Polls disguise huge uncertainty

The Tories want people to assume the outcome is decided but the only way to remove this government is to vote them out, says Labour’s national campaign coordinator

The Guardian - UK

Election loss, rout, or wipeout? Three Tory outcomes predicted by the polls

Scenarios using a large-scale data model that predicts individual seat tallies indicate anything from 53-155 Tory MPs

The Guardian - UK

Campaign catchup: 24 hours of Tory omnishambles, Labour housing, and Lib Dem melon drama

In today’s newsletter: A frantic 24 hours for the party sees their campaign going from bad to worse – here’s what happened

Evening Standard

General Election 2024: Who will win Surrey showdown as Jeremy Hunt fights to avoid defeat by Lib Dems

Evening Standard analysis of key seats to watch in London and beyond for the July 4 General Election

Evening Standard

Farage would be carrying Trump's bags around US if Sunak had called autumn poll, says top Tory

Lord Barwell, who was No10 chief-of-staff to Theresa May, said the July 4 election was a ‘terrible mistake’

The Independent UK

Curtice warns Tories heading for worst ever result ‘by a country mile’

After a series of devastating polls yesterday for the Tories, Britain’s leading polling guru explains how bad things will be on 4 July

The Conversation

This is the election of MRP polls – but what are they and why are they showing such different results?

I say, I say, I say, when is a poll not a poll? When it’s a multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) model!

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