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The Latest Breaking News from George Gallup

Long before Polymarket, election polls and predictions were always a form of popular entertainment with a checkered record of accuracy

Polls misfired during the election campaigns of 2012, 2016, and 2020. Their collective performance four years ago was their worst since 1980.

Fortune

‘No antidote for bad polls’: Recalling the New York Times’ 1956 election experiment in shoe-leather reporting

In response to national pollsters’ failure in forecasting election outcomes in 1948 and 1952, The New York Times pursued in 1956 a weekslong, multistate exercise in on-the-ground reporting to assess public opinion about the presidential race.

The Conversation

Some midterm polls were on-target – but finding which pollsters and poll aggregators to believe can be challenging

Pollsters indulged in breezy self-congratulation in the aftermath of the 2022 midterm elections. Pre-election polls, they declared, did well overall in signaling outcomes of high-profile U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.

The Conversation

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What pollsters learned from 2020 failure

Are election polls even worth the bother?

Salon

With memories of embarrassments still fresh, election pollsters face big tests in 2022 midterm elections

When it became clear his poll had erred in the 2021 New Jersey governor’s race, Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, acknowledged:

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