The question...
Have we got your full attention?
Talking Points
- War crime accusations flew after a Mariupol hospital was shelled
- Facebook opened the floodgates for anti-Russian hate-speech
- Venezuela (and its oil) found itself back in America's good books
- The US Congress needed 200 attempts to pass an anti-lynching bill
- India's ruling party is set for a huge win in its most populous state
- The UN Human Rights supremo announced a visit to Xinjiang
- Covid cases soared in China as clusters emerged in 12 cities
- A new sub-variant of Omicron appeared in Southeast Asia
- The UN warned of "rapidly deteriorating" food stocks in Somalia
- The cricket world mourned the death of Shane Warne
Dive deeper
Kyiv is slowly being encircled. Hundreds have died in the indiscriminate shelling of Mariupol. Refugees as streaming west as volunteers and weapons flood into the east. More and more Ukrainian territory is falling to Russian forces as the invasion intensifies.
War is the continuation of politics by other meals
In 2018, Marvel described its blockbuster Avengers: Infinity War as "the most ambitious crossover event in history". It was a bold statement; one that flew in the face of good taste and truth. In reality, that title belongs to the 1990 grand opening of the first McDonald's in Russia. The golden arches were erected in a square named for Alexander Pushkin, and as the ribbon was cut the Romantic poet's descendants were ushered in to enjoy a Big Mac. And so it's with great sadness that we announce McDonald's has now shuttered its 850 Russian stores , another culinary blow in the reverse-Perestroika of 2022.
Do svidaniya, Starbucks! Coca-Cola is off the shelves. Pepsi won't sell Pepsi (but will sell its milk and water range). No more flat-packed IKEA furniture. Even the streaming platforms have turned to static. As all these international firms head for the exit, Russia is preparing to seize and possibly even nationalise their local operations. Private sector divestiture has raced ahead of actual sanctions — at points reaching new comedic heights. The gaming giant Electronic Arts, for example, has excised the Russian teams Spartak Moscow and FC Zenit from its best-selling soccer game, FIFA 22. Russian soloists outside the country have had their shows cancelled with prominent symphony orchestras. French Canadians are striking poutine off menus, presumably to avoid re-traumatising Ukrainians with a bowl of French fries, cheese curds, and gravy.
Ruble turned to rubble
In a televised government meeting, Putin acknowledged the varied "questions, problems, and difficulties" arising from sanctions but claimed they would lead to an elevated expression of Russia's "independence, self-sufficiency, and our sovereignty". That might gird the true-believers, but Russia has been absolutely belted by the latest raft of sanctions — the severity of which have taken even Moscow by surprise. Financial restrictions have caused a $280bn run on the banks as Russians' cards and apps stopped working. There is simply not enough liquidity in the sector to meet those withdrawal demands. Bank Rossii, Russia's lender of last resort, has been hamstrung in its response because its $300bn of foreign reserves have been frozen by the central banks in Europe. These are unprecedented, far-reaching actions.
But Putin clearly thinks the situation is manageable . Russia has maintained its strong (and in some cases, growing) links with China, India, Vietnam, and a bevy of states in the Middle East and Africa . The yuan and dong are safe-havens for Russian capital. New Delhi, Algiers, Manila, and Baghdad still want to buy Russian military hardware. Some reports say oligarch megayachts have simply sailed around and dropped anchor in the calmer and morally relativistic waters off Abu Dhabi and Dubai. And, last but not least, a sanctions loophole is allowing billions of Euros to flow into Russian coffers so Germany can keep its heaters and stoves on. Nord Stream 2 hasn't been blown up — it just needs some paperwork to start pumping.
Fill up now before it's too late
As one would expect, the media has been full of reports about these punitive measures against Russia. But what's being discussed far less is the battery of counter sanctions. Russia is a world leading producer of commodities that are vital across multiple industries with global repercussions. Sure, there is a lot of oil and natural gas in Russia, but it is also a top exporter of aluminium, nickel, palladium and copper used in electric car batteries, steel, chemical fertilisers and potash, rare-earth elements used in microchip etching, and the sapphire substrate used in nearly every semiconductor in the world. Prodding any of these would send commodity spot markets (not to mention already-fragile supply chains) haywire .
Of course Russia will still end up being the biggest loser as a result of these actions. But how long does will the unified western front last? America's inflation rate is already at a 40-year high. And just envisage oil prices rocketing up to $250 or $300 a barrel in an election year. Can you hear the alarm bells going off in the White House?
The best that can be said of this awful situation is that everyone, with the exception of a few myopic hawks, has an interest in a negotiated end to this conflict .
Worldlywise
Rebelling, conservatively
Political newcomer Yoon Suk-yeol has ascended to the presidency of South Korea after what was the country’s closest – and ugliest – election campaign. There were Covid setbacks, physical assaults, accusations of Nazi-tactics, and shamanism. But don't let the juicy stuff distract you from the most pressing demographic story: the conservative drift among South Korea’s young men.
Young people number 14.1m out of South Korea's voting age population of 40m. They carry considerable political heft, and share grievances: a tight job market, soaring house prices, and generational wealth inequality. Politicians seeking to tame this population made YouTube and Instagram the battleground for young votes. Recent reports indicate that the younger generation desires change , and yet the Universal Basic Income proposed by candidate Lee Jae-myung was far less popular than you’d think. The consensus has been that South Korean youth, particularly young men, are becoming more economically conservative.
There are echoes of this narrative across many major developed democracies, and comparisons with the British and American shifts to populism and conservative politics feel apt. But South Korea’s tight election might be telling a slightly different story. Take the leader of the winning People Power Party (PPP) for example: at only thirty-six, Lee Jun-seok is the youngest party leader in the republic’s history. He is also against gender quotas, “radical feminism”, and holds the belief that the ministry for gender equality and family should be closed. The equality pendulum has swung so far that Lee, and many of his young, male supporters, argue the two-year mandatory military service for South Korean men has handicapped them out of the job market. Their claim: educated women have an unfair advantage.
Another bugbear has been the flight of wealth up the generational ladder. Despite a progressive agenda under Moon, many young people have not seen the same entitlements drip down to their cohort. All of this leaves Yoon with a fascinating set of problems: bring down unemployment, extend government benefits, and temper sexism all while tackling China and going hard on crime. Good luck.
Informant consent
The mood in America ahead of the 2020 presidential election was frenetic. The public was reeling from the coronavirus pandemic and mandated public health orders. The incumbent was muddying the waters with claims of voter-fraud. Hate-group watchers were reporting a rise in militia activity. And just a month out from election day some of their fears were realised in Michigan, where the FBI foiled an outlandish plot to kidnap the state's Governor, Gretchen Whitmer. 14 militia members — half of them from a little-known group called the Wolverine Watchmen — were taken into custody and charged with using violence to overthrow the government.
This week four of the accused had their day in court . Recordings of the plotters revealed the extent of their fury at the Democratic governor's pandemic response. One person wanted to hogtie Whitmer. Another to crush her skull. And there were regular exhortations to violence:
"And this right here, is why the f*ck I’m telling you, it’s being allowed by DeWine here, f*cking shit face Whitface or whatever her name is there. That shit has to fucking happen. Because if not, this shit right here, is going to continue to kill us in our back fucking yards."
But here's the thing: this quote wasn't from one of the accused, but rather from an FBI informant known in the case as "Big Dan". The defence is arguing that the Wolverine Watchmen were mostly just a bunch of "misfits" who "drank beer, smoked pot, and went out back and dumped a couple mags into a tree trunk". They allege that "Big Dan" goaded the group into increasingly extreme positions and actions: a textbook case of entrapment by law enforcement.
Given the Bureau's reliance on informants to manufacture terror arrests in the decade after 9/11, this is not wholly surprising.
The best of times
Sunrise after a meltdown
Having peered at the edge of oblivion during the 2011 nuclear disaster Japan completely reappraised its relationship with nuclear energy. Of the 33 plants that were shut down for review, just 9 are in operation today. Spurred by massive government investment, Fukushima has been transformed into a glimpse of Japan's green future. The prefecture generated 43% of its power from renewable sources in 2021 thanks to floating solar farms and experimental micro-grids. From radiation poisoning to hydrogen power in a decade.
Here's something to be chipper about...
The worst of times
And here's something to be glum about
How many combinations of the words "tipping point" , "dieback", and "Amazon rainforest" does our species need to read before a different course of action is taken?
Raiding the past
This week Sudanese armed forces backed by local militias raided the office of the commission that is investigating the 2019 Khartoum massacre . Progress is never linear, but this volatility in the capital is real cause for alarm. The prospect of justice for the victims is receding as those responsible cement their power.
Weekend Reading
The image
The startlingly well-preserved wreck of Ernest Shackleton's HMS Endurance was discovered on the bed of Antarctica's Weddell Sea this week. Photo supplied by The Independent .
The quote
"We’ve long been entirely comfortable that if we had legal title to an object, then certainly we were entitled to keep it and care for it. We’re going beyond legal title and asking: should we own this, knowing the circumstances under which it came into our ownership?"
– Kevin Glover of the Smithsonian Museum explains the reasoning behind the Smithsonian's decision to return Benin Bronzes to its rightful owners. The shift in focus challenges the archaic precepts which underpin many museum exhibitions. We hope someone from the British Museum is reading this.
The numbers
$101,365 per tonne
- Nickel futures soared to record highs on Monday as supply concerns mounted over Russian exports. Bad for buyers, worse for Xiang "Big Shot" Guangda — the Chinese commodity billionaire who had built an enormous short position on nickel futures. His loss on Monday exceeded $2bn.
171m adults
- Half of all Americans born before 1997 have been exposed to harmful levels of lead as children . The galling new study also concluded that the exposure amounted to an average 2.6-point drop in IQ for those who were exposed in their developmental years.
The headline
"Limewire Is Making a Comeback, But Not As You Know It" — Bloomberg . Unless one can still try to download the file Hate_It_Or_Love_It_50_Cent.mp3 and receive Rick Astley or malware — we don't want to hear about it.
The special mention
Our special mention this week goes to the American firm Kytch which is fighting an up-hill battle to make McDonald's ice-cream machines work. It is an incredible story .
A few choice long-reads
- The Economist on the Stanlisation of Russia.
- Businessweek on BP's $25bn Russia bet that soured.
- The Atlantic on an epochal change in Florida.
The answer...
On average: probably not. Studies show that you'll be distracted from a task by your phone somewhere between 50-80 times each day. So you most likely have received a message, notification, or other interruption before you could finish reading this issue of the Weekly Wrap.
