The Latest Breaking News from Simon Jackman

Saturday’s referendum vote reinforces sense that contemporary Liberal party has decoupled from its blue-ribbon metropolitan heartland

With almost a third of votes cast already in postal and pre-poll voting for the Voice to Parliament referendum, the “yes” campaign is ramping up its advertising and media efforts. Both campaigns are in the home straight ahead of Saturday’s crucial ballot.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed the Voice to Parliament referendum will take place on Saturday October 14.

Polls show declining support for referendum but variations in methods make it difficult to pinpoint by how much

Right from the outset, it is clear Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s agenda is very different to his predecessor Scott Morrison’s – from emphasising his commitment to fighting climate change to foreign leaders in Tokyo, to displaying the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags at his Parliament House press conferences.

Politics can be slow-moving, until all of a sudden it isn’t. As political scientist Simon Jackman says in today’s episode of Below the Line, “politics is very non-linear. You get these steady, secular trends in voter sentiment, and then you’ll have that breakthrough election where that will convert into seats”.

Professional women and voters concerned about climate change unleashed a third force in Australia's election, taking a swath of seats that ended nine years of conservative rule even as votes for the winning Labor Party fell.

The more independents and minor parties that end up in contention for lower house seats, the less useful traditional polling will be at predicting winners, writes Casey Briggs.

An existential moment for the Liberal party? Another female leader for Labor? In this episode of our election podcast Below the Line, our expert panel talk us through what might happen to the major parties if they do not win government.