The Latest Breaking News from Simon Jackman

‘This analysis would get tossed out even in high school level geography, social studies or statistics,’ one professor said.

Saturday’s referendum vote reinforces sense that contemporary Liberal party has decoupled from its blue-ribbon metropolitan heartland

In his relatively brief time as prime minister, Anthony Albanese has had very extensive contact with US President Joe Biden. According to the prime minister’s office, Albanese has had four formal meetings with him, plus two Quad meetings, and several other less formal discussions. They’ll rub shoulders again at the…

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed the Voice to Parliament referendum will take place on Saturday October 14.

Polls show declining support for referendum but variations in methods make it difficult to pinpoint by how much

Right from the outset, it is clear Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s agenda is very different to his predecessor Scott Morrison’s – from emphasising his commitment to fighting climate change to foreign leaders in Tokyo, to displaying the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags at his Parliament House press conferences.

Politics can be slow-moving, until all of a sudden it isn’t. As political scientist Simon Jackman says in today’s episode of Below the Line, “politics is very non-linear. You get these steady, secular trends in voter sentiment, and then you’ll have that breakthrough election where that will convert into seats”.

Professional women and voters concerned about climate change unleashed a third force in Australia's election, taking a swath of seats that ended nine years of conservative rule even as votes for the winning Labor Party fell.

The more independents and minor parties that end up in contention for lower house seats, the less useful traditional polling will be at predicting winners, writes Casey Briggs.