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The Latest Breaking News from Recession

Moody's Mark Zandi Warns Of 'Uncomfortably High' 48% Probability Of US Recession In Next 12 Months

The U.S. economy faces an “uncomfortably high” 48% probability of slipping into a recession within the next 12 months, according to Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics.

Benzinga

This housing data is the 'most critical economic variable' for predicting recessions, and it's now at the lowest level since pandemic shutdowns

Moody’s own leading economic indicator that uses machine learning has estimated the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are now at 48%.

Fortune

Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi Warns Fed Faces High Bar To Avoid Rate Cuts As Weak Jobs Trump Inflation Risks Ahead Of CPI Report

Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi said the Federal Reserve is more likely to cut rates next week despite inflation running above target, citing a stalled labor market and rising recession risks.

Benzinga

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The Fed 'desperately' wants to avoid a recession because it doesn't want to get blamed and put its independence at risk, top economist says

"Obviously nobody wants a recession. But also in the context of Fed independence, they really don't want to get blamed for going into a downturn because that would impair their ability."

Fortune

Russia's central bank reveals GDP is shrinking, in a sign Putin's war economy has slipped into recession

A chart in a central bank report showed GDP shrank on a sequential basis in the first and second quarters, meeting the definition of a technical recession.

Fortune

4 Stock Predictions From JP Morgan for the Rest of 2025

Here's a breakdown of the market predictions from J.P. Morgan on what to expect for the remainder of the year.

GOBankingRates

How To Build a ‘Recession-Ready’ Budget for 2026

Experts share smart budgeting tips to protect your finances, cut bills and build savings. That way, you'll be prepared whether a recession hits or not.

GOBankingRates

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Jamie Dimon gives pessimistic outlook on US economy and says full impact of Trump tariffs hasn’t happened yet

Economy ‘weakening’ though recession isn’t certain, JPMorgan’s Dimon says

The Independent UK

Jamie Dimon says economy is 'weakening' but even he can't make sense of all the different data: 'Maybe, one day, AI will fix that problem'

The economy produced nearly a million less jobs than first thought. "Whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know," Dimon told CNBC.

Fortune

Wealthier Americans are more worried about rising unemployment than any other income group, NY Fed finds, as fear of 'white-collar recession' grows

“Looking at the spread and the difference between these groups is suggesting, boy, we're on very different pages as to what the future holds,” one economist said.

Fortune

Jamie Dimon isn’t convinced by the market’s theory that huge job revisions aren’t a recession indicator

“Hopefully things will be okay, but you do see that kind of weakening,” he said.

Fortune

Jamie Dimon Warns Of 'Weakening' US Economy, But Doesn't 'Know' Whether Its Nearing Recession: 'Have To Wait And See'

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has expressed concerns about the U.S. economy, following a significant revision in the Labor Department’s job data.

Benzinga

Americans haven’t been this pessimistic about finding a new job since a bleak stretch of the Great Recession

Pessimism is "most pronounced for those with at most a high school education," according to the New York Federal Reserve.

Fortune

This Bond ETF's Wild Rally Echoes The Pandemic Market Chaos

One long-duration Treasury bond ETF has surged nearly 9% in just four trading sessions, a performance that mirrors rallies last seen during the 2020 pandemic panic and the deflationary scare of August 2024.

Benzinga

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Benzinga

Gary Black Says This Could Spark Strong Rally In Tech And Growth Stocks If Recession Risks Stay Low

A drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below the key 4% level could ignite a significant rally in technology and other growth stocks, according to prominent investor Gary Black.

Saving Advice

7 Passive-Income Streams That Don’t Collapse in a Recession

Passive income is a dream for many retirees—money that flows in without constant work. But not all income streams hold up when the economy contracts....

Fortune

Top analyst says you weren't crazy for thinking the economy felt worse than it looked the last 3 years. The 'rolling recession' just ended

"Central to our view," Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson argues, "is the notion that the economy has been much weaker" than the headline numbers suggest.

Reason

"Authoritarians in the Academy": The Free Speech Recession

When universities are global institutions, the global speech environment matters.

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Fortune

Dow futures rise as recession fears grow while Wall Street awaits the one thing that could derail Fed rate cuts

On Thursday, the consumer price index is due, and Wall Street sees a 0.3% gain, accelerating from the 0.2% pace a month earlier.

Fortune

The most troubling feature of the job market is how thinly spread gains are, top economist says — 'this only happens when the economy is in recession'

"Since the beginning of the year, the economy has created a paltry 600k jobs, but without the job growth in these industries, there would be zero job growth."

Benzinga

US Labor Market On The Edge: Moody's Economist Warns Shrinking Workforce Signals Looming Economic Recession

The U.S. labor market is showing alarming signs of contraction, prompting Moody’s Analytics‘ top economist Mark Zandi to warn that a full-blown recession could be on the horizon.

GOBankingRates

The 6 Bills To Cut First During a Recession — According to Experts

The real challenge in a recession is deciding what to cut when every bill feels important.

The Independent UK

There’s no more denying it – Trump risks a recession on his watch

ANALYSIS: Trump returned to the White House promising a better economy. But every sector has taken a huge beating as Americans feel the effect of his tariffs, Eric Garcia writes

Fortune

America’s job growth has flatlined—and Mark Zandi believes June may have been the start of a recession

June’s job loss was the first since the pandemic, a flashing-red signal that the economy’s growth momentum has stopped.

Euronews

Russian economy is stagnating amid Ukraine war, says Sberbank CEO

German Gref said the country's central bank should lower interest rates to avoid a recession.

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