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The Latest Breaking News from Poll Bludger

Labor's lead drops in Resolve and Essential polls, but they are still far ahead

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 15-19 from a sample of 1,604, gave Labor 40% of the primary vote (down two since January), the Coalition 31% (up two), the Greens 10% (down one), One Nation 5% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9% (up one)…

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Albanese's Newspoll ratings drop but Labor maintains big lead

A federal Newspoll, conducted February 1-4 from a sample of 1,512, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged on the previous Newspoll in early December. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 34% Coalition (down one), 11% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady) and 11% for all Others (up two).

The Conversation

Two months before NSW election, a new poll gives Labor a big lead

A new poll has given Labor a sizeable 56% to 44% two-party preferred lead over the Coalition, two months ahead of the New South Wales state election on March 25.

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Labor retains big lead in Newspoll as Albanese's ratings jump; Victorian election update

A federal Newspoll, conducted November 30 to December 3 from a sample of 1,508, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged from the post-budget Newspoll in late October. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 35% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (steady), 1% UAP (steady) and 8% for…

The Conversation

Final Victorian Newspoll gives Labor a large lead

The Victorian state election is today. There are 88 single-member lower house seats with members elected by preferential voting, and 40 upper house seats in eight five-member electorates. The election in the lower house seat of Narracan has been postponed owing to a candidate’s death.

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Nine days from Victorian election, a new poll gives Labor a modest lead; US Republicans win House

The Victorian election will be held in nine days, on November 26. A Redbridge poll for The Herald Sun, conducted October 31 to November 6 from a sample of 1,189, gave Labor a 53.5-46.5 lead. Primary votes had an initial 10.4% undecided.

The Conversation

Victorian Newspoll has Labor's lead down, but would still win with three weeks until election

The Victorian election will be held in three weeks, on November 26. A Newspoll, conducted October 31 to November 3 from a sample of 1,007, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the last Victorian Newspoll in late August.

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Labor retains large lead in Victorian Resolve poll four weeks from election; also leads in NSW

The Victorian state election will be held in four weeks, on November 26. A Resolve poll for The Age, conducted October 20-24 from a sample of “more than 800”, gave Labor a 59-41 lead over the Coalition.

The Conversation

Labor seizes big lead in two New South Wales polls six months before election

The New South Wales state election will be held in six months, in March 2023. A Newspoll, conducted September 19-22 from a sample of 1,006, gave Labor a 54-46 lead (it was 52.0-48.0 to the Coalition at the March 2019 election). Primary votes were 40% Labor (33.3% at the last…

The Conversation

Labor extends big lead in Newspoll, but Morgan is much better for Coalition

This week’s Newspoll is the second since the May federal election, after the first appeared five weeks ago. Labor led by 57-43, a one point gain for Labor. Primary votes were 37% Labor (steady), 31% Coalition (down two), 13% Greens (up one), 7% One Nation (up one), 2% UAP (steady)…

The Conversation

Victorian Newspoll gives Labor big lead three months before election

The Victorian election will be held in three months, on November 26. A Victorian state Newspoll, conducted August 22-25 from a sample of 1,027, gave Labor a 56-44 lead (57.3-42.7 at the 2018 election). Primary votes were 41% Labor (42.9% at election), 36% Coalition (35.2%), 13% Greens (10.7%) and 10%…

The Conversation

First Newspoll since election gives Albanese 'honeymoon' ratings; Australia's poor success rate at referendums

The first Newspoll since the May federal election, conducted July 27-30 from a sample of 1,508, gave Labor a 56-44 lead (52.1-47.9 to Labor at the election). Primary votes were 37% Labor (32.6% at election), 33% Coalition (35.7%), 12% Greens (12.2%), 6% One Nation (5.0%), 2% UAP (4.1%) and 10%…

The Conversation

Census data shows poorest seats voted Coalition; byelections or polls from four states

The Poll Bludger covered findings from the 2021 Census on June 30. The most striking finding was that the Coalition won the ten seats with the lowest household income at the federal election. These seats are all in regional Australia.

The Conversation

More Senate results: Hanson wins easily, but Labor still on track for a friendly Senate

Buttons have now been pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the May 21 federal election in the Senate for South Australia, Tasmania and Queensland. I discussed the ACT and NT results that elected David Pocock to the Senate on Tuesday.

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How did the polls perform in the 2022 election? Better, but not great; also a Senate update

At the May 21 federal election, Labor won 77 of the 151 House of Representatives seats (up eight since 2019 when adjusted for redistributions), the Coalition won 58 seats (down 18), the Greens four (up three) and all Others 12 (up seven).

The Conversation

Newspoll and Ipsos both give Labor clear leads in final polls; counting of early votes

The federal election is on Saturday. Polls close at 6pm local time; that means 6pm AEST in the eastern states, 6:30pm in SA and the NT and 8pm in WA. 124 of the 151 House of Representatives seats are in the eastern time zone, 12 combined in SA and the…

The Conversation

Labor's lead narrows in three new national polls; and seat polls galore

The final Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted May 12-17 from a sample of 2,049, gave Labor just a 52-48 lead by 2019 election preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight’s Resolve. By respondent preferences, Labor’s lead was narrower at 51-49, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

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Labor retains large Newspoll lead but Albanese's ratings fall; special poll gives Labor clear House majority

A Newspoll, conducted May 10-13 from a sample of 1,532, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, unchanged from the previous week’s Newspoll. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (up one), 3% UAP (down one) and 7% all Others (up one).

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Labor seizes large lead in Newspoll and Ipsos; impact of how to vote cards is exaggerated

This week’s Newspoll, conducted May 4-7 from a sample of 1,523, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week’s Newspoll. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 35% Coalition (down one), 11% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (steady), 4% UAP (steady) and 6% Others…

The Conversation

Labor's lead steady in Newspoll and gains in Resolve; how the polls moved during past campaigns

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 27-30 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (up two), 4% UAP (steady) and 6% for all Others (down three).

The Conversation

Labor retains clear Newspoll lead and large Ipsos lead as record number of candidates nominate

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 20-23 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged from last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (up one), 11% Greens (down one), 4% UAP (steady), 3% One Nation (down one) and 9% for all Others (steady).

The Conversation

Labor still has clear lead in Newspoll and Resolve, but Albanese’s ratings slump

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 14-17 from a sample of 1,510, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 36% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (up two), 4% One Nation (up one), 4% UAP (steady) and 9% for all Others (down one).

The Conversation

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 6-9 from a sample of 1,506, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 36% Coalition (steady), 10% Greens (steady), 4% UAP (up one), 3% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all…

The Conversation

Coalition and Greens gain in post-budget Newspoll as an Ipsos poll gives Labor a large lead

This week’s Newspoll, conducted March 31 to April 3 – the days following the March 29 budget –from a sample of 1,531, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since the last Newspoll, three weeks ago.

The Conversation

Albanese level with Morrison as better PM in Newspoll as Labor maintains big lead

This week’s Newspoll, conducted March 9-12 from a sample of 1,520, gave Labor a 55-45 lead, unchanged since last fortnight. Primary votes were 41% Labor (steady), 35% Coalition (steady), 8% Greens (down one), 3% One Nation (steady), 3% Clive Palmer’s UAP (down one) and 10% for all Others (up two).

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