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The Latest Breaking News from Peter Kellner

Why did the election polls overstate Labour’s lead?

Surveys consistently showed a landslide for Starmer’s party, but predictions were wide of the mark

The Guardian - UK

May general election? The economic case for going early (and clinging on)

Falling inflation and tax cuts in a February budget would signal a spring poll but weak growth and rising mortgage bills bode caution

The Guardian - UK

Labour at ‘tipping point’ of beating SNP across Scotland, says Anas Sarwar

Scottish Labour leader tells conference byelection win is proof party can take seats at next general and Holyrood elections

The Guardian - UK

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Labour’s Scottish byelection win sets off tremors in Holyrood and Westminster

Victory for Labour in Rutherglen and Hamilton West gives party cautious hope for bigger battles ahead

The Guardian - UK

Millions of ‘missing voters’ cost Labour seats due to electoral boundaries bias

Analysis of official data has revealed the system for drawing constituencies is ‘warping’ British democracy by omitting eligible voters

The Guardian - UK

The local picture is good for Keir Starmer – the national predictions look even better

Evidence of a tactical pincer movement to defeat the Tories shows how worried they should be about the general election, says former YouGov president Peter Kellner

The Guardian - UK

Who will win the next general election? The odds and polls

Rishi Sunak is celebrating a sharp fall in inflation to 6.8%, bolstering his pledge to halve the rate by the end of the year.

The Week

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Echoes of dire 1970s in today's Britain

Plans for a high-wage, high-growth economy lie in ruins as Britain's Conservative prime minister struggles to answer a cost-of-living crisis, compounded by rising worker unrest.

Reuters

Could tactical voting save Britain from the Tories?

Letters: John Lynch and Declan O’Neill respond to an article on how tactical voting, as seen in the recent byelections, could reshape British politics. Plus a letter from David Smith

The Guardian - UK

A harsh lesson for the Tories: you can’t outrun tactical voting

The dramatic Tiverton and Honiton result shows how strategic anti-Conservative voting could decide the next general election, says Peter Kellner, a former president of YouGov

The Guardian - UK

‘Industrial-scale’ tactical voting sparks calls for Labour-Lib Dem electoral pact

‘Don’t rest on your laurels’: Keir Starmer and Ed Davey urged to work together after by-election wins

The Independent UK

Why do polling firms like YouGov tweak polls? Because they are scared of being wrong

The pressure to avoid mistakes can force pollsters to second-guess themselves, just as YouGov did in 2017, says Peter Kellner, a former president of YouGov

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