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The Latest Breaking News from Newspoll

How did the polls perform in the 2022 election? Better, but not great; also a Senate update

At the May 21 federal election, Labor won 77 of the 151 House of Representatives seats (up eight since 2019 when adjusted for redistributions), the Coalition won 58 seats (down 18), the Greens four (up three) and all Others 12 (up seven).

The Conversation

Australians vote to determine conservative government future

Polling stations have opened across eastern Australia as voters decide whether Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s conservative government will defy odds and rule for a fourth three-year term

The Independent UK

Let’s face it – we’re addicted to polls, even if they’ve got things so wrong in the past

CAMPAIGN DIARY: Dennis Atkins lays out a guide to what the polls have told us and what we might learn in the last hours of this exhausting campaign.

The New Daily

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Newspoll and Ipsos both give Labor clear leads in final polls; counting of early votes

The federal election is on Saturday. Polls close at 6pm local time; that means 6pm AEST in the eastern states, 6:30pm in SA and the NT and 8pm in WA. 124 of the 151 House of Representatives seats are in the eastern time zone, 12 combined in SA and the…

The Conversation

Labor's lead narrows in three new national polls; and seat polls galore

The final Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted May 12-17 from a sample of 2,049, gave Labor just a 52-48 lead by 2019 election preferences, a two-point gain for the Coalition since last fortnight’s Resolve. By respondent preferences, Labor’s lead was narrower at 51-49, a three-point gain for the Coalition.

The Conversation

Labor retains large Newspoll lead but Albanese's ratings fall; special poll gives Labor clear House majority

A Newspoll, conducted May 10-13 from a sample of 1,532, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, unchanged from the previous week’s Newspoll. Primary votes were 38% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 6% One Nation (up one), 3% UAP (down one) and 7% all Others (up one).

The Conversation

Analysis-Hero to hindrance: Australia PM Morrison hurts party's election hopes

Three years ago, Scott Morrison's ebullient personality as the little known and newly installed leader of Australia's Liberal Party was a big factor in its unexpected election victory.

Reuters

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Albanese’s in the box seat with just a fortnight to go

The latest polling suggests the election is now Labor’s to lose, with momentum shifting behind Anthony Albanese, and Scott Morrison becoming increasingly unpopular.

Crikey

View from The Hill: Labor widens leads in Newspoll and Ipsos, as pre-polling starts

The opposition has increased its winning margins in both Newspoll and the Australian Financial Review’s Ipsos poll, as Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese clashed in a shouty, fractious debate on Sunday night.

The Conversation

Labor seizes large lead in Newspoll and Ipsos; impact of how to vote cards is exaggerated

This week’s Newspoll, conducted May 4-7 from a sample of 1,523, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous week’s Newspoll. Primary votes were 39% Labor (up one), 35% Coalition (down one), 11% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (steady), 4% UAP (steady) and 6% Others…

The Conversation

Labor's lead steady in Newspoll and gains in Resolve; how the polls moved during past campaigns

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 27-30 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 38% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (up two), 4% UAP (steady) and 6% for all Others (down three).

The Conversation

View from The Hill: Labor strongly ahead in Newspoll and Resolve, as election race enters final half

Labor’s confidence will be boosted by two polls showing it holding a strong lead, as Anthony Albanese carried off a well-orchestrated party launch in Perth on Sunday.

The Conversation

Labor retains clear Newspoll lead and large Ipsos lead as record number of candidates nominate

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 20-23 from a sample of 1,538, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged from last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (up one), 11% Greens (down one), 4% UAP (steady), 3% One Nation (down one) and 9% for all Others (steady).

The Conversation

Labor maintains election-winning leads in Newspoll and Ipsos, as opposition to unveil Pacific initiatives

Labor has maintained unchanged its solid two-party leads in both Newspoll and the Australian Financial Review’s Ipsos poll.

The Conversation

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The Conversation

Explainer: how to read political polls - and why we can expect a lot of drama on election night

The single most important measure in Australian election polls is the two-party preferred vote (2PP). It captures the two central characteristics of Australian House of Representatives elections: that it is a preferential voting system, in which the flow of preferences can be crucial in determining who wins a seat; and…

Crikey

Coalition’s gender problems come home to boost Labor and independents

The polls seem to show that female voters don’t have a lot of time for Scott Morrison and his Liberal Party — a bad omen for May 21?

The Conversation

Labor still has clear lead in Newspoll and Resolve, but Albanese’s ratings slump

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 14-17 from a sample of 1,510, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, unchanged since last week. Primary votes were 36% Labor (down one), 35% Coalition (down one), 12% Greens (up two), 4% One Nation (up one), 4% UAP (steady) and 9% for all Others (down one).

The Conversation

View from The Hill: Labor holds 53-47% lead but Albanese takes a hit in Newspoll

Labor has clung to its 53-47% two-party lead in the latest Newspoll, but Anthony Albanese’s ratings have taken a knock after his error-prone first week of the campaign.

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Crikey

Poll position: lessons learnt mean we can now treat them with a healthy scepticism

Once you’ve lost trust it’s hard to get it back, but since the debacle of 2019 Australian pollsters have racked up some pretty accurate results.

The Conversation

Forget the election gaffes: Australia's unemployment rate of 4% is good news – and set to get even better by polling day

When Labor leader Anthony Albanese couldn’t say whether the unemployment rate was 5% or 4% on Monday, he might have had a point.

The Conversation

This week’s Newspoll, conducted April 6-9 from a sample of 1,506, gave Labor a 53-47 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since last week. Primary votes were 37% Labor (down one), 36% Coalition (steady), 10% Greens (steady), 4% UAP (up one), 3% One Nation (steady) and 10% for all…

Crikey

Labor leads in the polls — but can we trust the data?

Polling misjudged the 2019 federal election, wrongly forecasting a Labor win. Now, Labor are ahead again, but has polling fixed its past mistakes?

The Conversation

Where are the most marginal seats, and who might win them?

The map below shows the 2019 federal election results adjusted for redistributions in Victoria and Western Australia. Victoria gained a seat (Hawke), while WA lost one (Stirling). Hawke is a notional Labor seat, while Stirling was a Liberal seat, so Labor gained one notional seat by redistribution.

AAP

Newspoll puts Morrison ahead of Albanese

The latest Newspoll shows Scott Morrison has pulled ahead of Anthony Albanese as the preferred prime minister.

The Conversation

As the election campaign begins, what do the polls say, and can we trust them this time?

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called the federal election for May 21. What do the polls say, and how do we know if they are accurate?

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