The Latest Breaking News from Michael Kofman

The outcome of Russia’s attacks on the Donetsk and Luhansk areas will determine the fate of the rest of Ukraine

Even as the Kremlin prepares to take full control of the ruins of Mariupol city, it faces the growing prospect of defeat in its bid to conquer all of Ukraine's eastern Donbas because its badly mauled forces lack the manpower for significant advances.

Information about the damage being done in Ukraine is leaking out, and discouraging some of those who used to back the war

The Kremlin says a proxy war could turn nuclear.

SLOVYANSK, Ukraine — When Russian troops blitzed into Ukraine, what was supposed to be an easy victory quickly foundered as Ukrainian forces mounted a strong defense that — along with Russia's many missteps — have left Moscow mired in a withering two-month war with no end in sight.

Russia's objectives are narrowing. Expect a grinding battle.

Next few weeks crucial in determining outcome of conflict, says David Kofman

Putin is shifting his tactics, and maybe his end-game, analysts say.

As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine heads toward the two-week mark, the stakes for both sides in the ground war look set to rise, with potentially catastrophic implications for Ukrainian civilians and greater challenges for the country’s so far remarkably successful defense.

Analysts fear Russia is preparing a full-scale invasion.