The Latest Breaking News from John Curtice

Farage launches campaign in Essex constituency and announces intention to take over the Tory party

Farage’s return to frontline politics, first revealed exclusively by The Independent at Monday lunchtime, coincides with devastating new polling figures for Rishi Sunak’s party

Polling guru John Curtice gives his views on Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer’s chances in the general election on 4 July

Analysis reveals voters switching from the Tories in pro-Brexit seats could make a Starmer election victory easier to achieve

There are signs the party’s polling lead is a bit soft. But with the Tories trailing in leadership and economy, experts are not sure it will matter

This isn't going to be one of those newsletters that opens with a Tony Blair reference, a convoluted 1990s pop culture storyline or a self-deprecating yet witty personal anecdote. We can leave those at home. Instead, allow me to regurgitate three things the godfather of psephology, Sir John Curtice, said…

Even if pared back, the party still has the only real growth policy in town, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

Polling expert says similarity between two main parties and clear Labour lead also likely to suppress voting numbers

Exclusive: Rishi Sunak has been warned by Britain’s top pollsters that his party faces failure in three upcoming by-elections