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The Latest Breaking News from Gregory Daco

Trump's Return Threatens Resurgence Of Trade Wars

Donald Trump's second presidential term promises a return to tariffs as he pressures partners and rivals to tackle everything from migration to drug trafficking, while protecting US industries -- in moves that could trigger new trade wars.

International Business Times

Fed interest rate cut bets in 2025 tied to Trump policy wild cards

The Fed could be in wait-and-see mode as the president-elect develops his economic strategy for 2025 and beyond.

The Street

The Federal Reserve expects to cut rates more slowly in 2025. Here's what that could mean for you

The Federal Reserve’s third interest rate cut of the year will likely have consequences for debt, savings, auto loans, mortgages and other forms of borrowing by consumers and businesses

The Independent UK

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Budget, Debt: Trump's Treasury Chief Faces Urgent Challenges

President-elect Donald Trump's new Treasury chief needs to hit the ground running once he takes office, tasked with rolling out his boss's economic vision and grappling with the country's debt limit.

International Business Times

Post-election, CFOs should 'focus on what they can control,' advises economist

Economists discuss consumer spending and preparing for any scenario.

Fortune

US Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Steady As Rate Cut Looms

The US Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation held steady in July according to government data Friday, sustaining expectations that the central bank is on its way to interest rate cuts starting next month.

International Business Times

US Jobs Data Point To Weaker Than Expected Market

The US jobs market was probably cooler than expected in the year through March, Labor Department data showed Wednesday, signaling weaker but still-positive growth.

International Business Times

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Wall Street's worries over a massive stock sell-off is no reason for CFOs to panic, says a chief economist

A "drastic reorientation of strategy" may not be necessary.

Fortune

Inflation cooldown incoming for U.S. economy

Yes, but: New data also showed a gloomier snapshot of the American consumer.

Axios

Retail Sales In US Rebound Less Than Expected In February

US consumer spending warmed slightly in February, according to government data released Thursday, with retail sales regaining ground after an earlier hit from cold weather.

International Business Times

US Embrace Of Remote Working Empties Offices, Weighs On Banks

International Business Times

What Is Behind The US Economy's Surprising Strength?

The US has seen GDP growth blow past predictions, hiring numbers surge unexpectedly and consumers still spending even as interest rates climbed -- deftly averting a dreaded recession in 2023.

International Business Times

US Fed Expected To Pause Again As Inflation Edges Closer To Target

The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates at a 22-year high for a third consecutive meeting on Wednesday as it continues to fight elevated inflation.

International Business Times

American workers keep proving they don’t need to return to the office to be productive

The productivity of U.S. workers grew 5.2% in the third quarter, at the fastest pace since 2020.

Fortune

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Fortune

CEOs say remote work is a disaster for productivity. Goldman’s chief economist says that can't explain the last 15 years

An NYU economics professor shocked the profession by arguing that “total factor productivity” is linear, not exponential. Jan Hatzius says he's got a point.

Fortune

Israel war could cause a recession, $150 oil, and a 20% stock drop

U.S.-focused companies can't ignore the war in Israel, warns EY's Gregory Daco. "It will have consequences that will affect your business.”

Zenger

Experts Downplay Immediate Recession Risk Amid Potential Government Shutdown

Short-term impact expected, but prolonged shutdown could dampen growth and hinder Biden's re-election chances

Fortune

The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose last month—here’s why some economists say it’s misleading and won’t lead to more interest rate hikes

EY-Parthenon’s chief economist thinks “the Fed’s tightening cycle is over.”

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Fortune

BRICS just invited 6 nations including Saudi Arabia and Iran to join—here's why it increases the prospect of dollar replacement

The idea of creating a BRICS common currency to rival the dollar has long been on the agenda of the emerging-market nations in the bloc.

Fortune

Remote work is killing productivity, the experts and CEOs say—except it just surged the most in nearly 3 years

The remote work wars have been a real journey, and the data just took another twist. The second quarter reversed a shocking slump.

The Independent UK

US economy likely slowed in April-June quarter but still showed its resilience

The most aggressive streak of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in 40 years has slowed the U.S. economy

Fortune

Bosses are fed up with remote work for 4 main reasons. Some of them are undeniable

The data showing that remote workers spend fewer hours working, less productively, is really starting to add up.

Fortune

What CFOs need to know about the latest inflation and wage growth data

Economists weigh in on interest rates and new research that points to labor costs having a small effect on overall inflation.

Fortune

Top economist Tyler Cowen's theory that explains your workers 'really are doing less': A ‘serious crisis of morale’

Your employees could be less productive because the last three years were just such a huge bummer, the influential blogger and columnist wrote.

Fortune

'Turbulence ahead': Nearly 4 in 10 Americans lack enough money to cover a $400 emergency expense, Fed survey shows

“The 2022 survey found that self-reported financial well-being was among the lowest levels observed since 2016,” the central bank’s researchers wrote.

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