Former ICAC counsel Geoffrey Watson expects the corruption watchdog to launch a formal investigation into Tim Crakanthorp and return an adverse finding if he is shown to have omitted potential conflicts of interest from his ministerial disclosures.
Mr Crakanthorp's political career now hangs on the Independent Commission Against Corruption after Premier Chris Minns said last week that the Newcastle MP would be dumped from the Labor party if ICAC launched an investigation.
Mr Minns referred the matter to the ICAC after sacking Mr Crakanthorp from cabinet over his failure to disclose the extent of his family's "substantial" property holdings in the Hunter.
Mr Watson, who helped spearhead the 2014 Operation Spicer ICAC investigation into illegal Liberal party donations in Newcastle, said the watchdog likely had opened an investigation already.
"This is a reference by the Premier about one of his ministers. You can bet your house that ICAC will be looking at this," he said.
Mr Crakanthorp has admitted to an "unintended breach" of the Ministerial Code of Conduct.
He told Parliament last week that he had omitted one of his wife's properties from his ministerial disclosure when he was appointed to cabinet in April and later became aware that some of his in-laws' Broadmeadow properties "now represented a conflict of interest".
He said he had spoken in recent days to his in-laws, compiled a full list of their property interests and "self-reported" them to the Premier.
Sydney media outlets have reported the MP's chief of staff told Mr Minns about the extent of the family's property holdings after Mr Crakanthorp refused to do so.
The Premier has said he was "provided with information" about the properties and wrote a formal letter to Mr Crakanthorp.
Mr Watson said it was "absolutely" enough for the ICAC to return an adverse finding if Mr Crakanthorp had failed to disclose a potential conflict of interest.
"It can only make a statutory declaration of corrupt conduct if the conduct behind that is serious corrupt conduct, but it can make findings all the way through which can indicate, for example, that there'd been a departure from standards, a departure from the ministerial code," he said.
The ICAC's jurisdiction extended to examining breaches of the Ministerial Code of Conduct.
The ICAC Act defines corrupt conduct as that which "adversely affects, or that could adversely affect, either directly or indirectly, the honest or impartial exercise of official functions by any public official" or conduct which involves a breach of public trust.
"Conduct does not amount to corrupt conduct unless it could constitute or involve ... in the case of conduct of a Minister of the Crown ... a substantial breach of an applicable code of conduct," the leglislation says.
Mr Crakanthorp's in-laws, the Manitta family, own eight properties in Broadmeadow Road near the proposed Hunter Park redevelopment precinct in a suburb earmarked by the former Coalition government for fast-tracked residential rezonings.
His wife, Laura, bought a property in Broadmeadow Road in February from her father, Joe.
Many of the properties have been in the family's property portfolio for more than 20 years, including several purchases dating back to the 1980s.
The Newcastle Herald does not suggest Laura Crakanthorp or the Manitta family have done anything wrong.
An ICAC investigation into Mr Crakanthorp could proceed to a public inquiry, as in the case of former Wagga Wagga MP Daryl Maguire and his secret girlfriend, former premier Gladys Berejiklian.
The commission made findings of serious corrupt conduct against both.
Mr Watson, a director at the Centre for Public Integrity think tank, said the Premier had not made it clear what level of ICAC investigation would trigger Mr Crakanthorp's expulsion from the party.
"I don't know, and I don't think he [Minns] does, either," he said.
"That doesn't surprise me. He is using the layman's language, which is fair enough.
"I think Minns is talking about a public hearing [as the threshold], but he's been talking about an investigation."
A representative for Mr Crakanthorp said he would not comment while awaiting the ICAC process.
