Twenty-four hours is supposed to be a long time in politics. But the past fortnight in Queensland has felt like watching the continents drift apart.
Annastacia Palaszczuk returns from leave on Monday to confront the first serious threat to her leadership since 2012, when she took the wheel of a Labor opposition that could fit comfortably inside a Toyota Tarago.
A growing cohort of MPs and party figures now firmly believes Palaszczuk should resign – the cumulative effect of a series of poor polls, kneejerk and “incoherent” policy lurches to the right, and longstanding discontent about her leadership style.
But the whole political drama is playing out in slow motion.
Partly this is because, as one MP put it, “no one wants to be the person who rolled her while she was on holiday”. The result is the push for leadership change – while real – has not progressed beyond some tentative internal discussions.
The main reason, though, is that Labor’s rules require 50% of the caucus to petition the party state secretary, Kate Flanders, to trigger a complicated leadership spill.
Labor MPs say that scenario is unthinkable: for things to get to that point, the government might as well concede the next election.
Most agree the only way the leadership changes is if Palaszczuk decides – or is convinced – to resign.
Who could replace her?
The most likely alternative to Palaszczuk, the deputy premier Steven Miles, has used the past two weeks to step outside his usual persona of government attack dog. He looks like a man on the campaign trail.
Free kindy is one of the biggest changes we've made to education in Queensland.
— Steven Miles (@StevenJMiles) September 6, 2023
It means every Queensland kid, no matter where they live, has access to the best education. pic.twitter.com/BTY5JJJxFU
But while Miles has put in an energetic performance as acting premier, sources say that, privately, he appears to lack the appetite to bring the leadership situation to a head.
Palaszczuk’s defining political skill has been an ability to appeal to folks in Townsville and Toowong, at opposite ends of a very complex state. After nearly nine years in office, her polling numbers are falling, but the key question is whether a new leader would reverse the decline.
There is some internal concern about whether Miles – a former union official with a PhD – can gain traction in the parts of Queensland where voters tend to prefer politicians who can pull off bootcut jeans and cowboy hats.
Guardian Australia understands that the figure seen by many as the key powerbroker within Labor – United Voice union vice-president Gary ‘Blocker’ Bullock – does not support an immediate change of leadership.
United Voice controls the largest group of MPs within the Labor caucus, including Miles.
Some in Labor believe Bullock’s support alone might be enough to fortify the premier, who can stare down unrest by simply refusing to go.
Others say the influence of United Voice within the party is overstated, and that pressure could still come from elsewhere.
The health minister, Shannon Fentiman, is a likely leadership candidate and would have support from other sections of Labor’s dominant left faction.
Cameron Dick, from the right, has leadership ambitions but would struggle to win a contested vote against either Miles or Fentiman.
Premier’s leadership style a longstanding issue
“It felt like something broke,” one Labor MP says, of the week in parliament before Palaszczuk went on leave.
The government passed amendments – with no notice or consultation – to suspend the Human Rights Act, and allow the extended detention of children in police watch houses.
Many MPs say privately that they are deeply uncomfortable with those amendments, and some believe they were “clearly misled” about the urgency. But it was the method – ramming through substantive amendments without normal process – more than the morality that has proved a catalyst for leadership discussions.
Issues with Palaszczuk’s leadership style are longstanding. Labor sources say she has a tendency to take offence when ministers or MPs disagree with a course of action.
This week’s cabinet meeting, chaired by Miles, felt different.
“People seemed to feel free to speak their minds,” one minister said.
The premier’s political instinct to get bad news off the front page has largely prompted a series of kneejerk policy changes, often without involvement from colleagues.
During the early months of the pandemic, Palaszczuk announced she would freeze public sector wages – without the knowledge of cabinet ministers or key unions – while on the defensive during a morning television interview.
Last year, she made a captain’s call to shelve land tax changes, in response to sustained pressure from the Courier Mail and the property lobby.
Meanwhile, MPs privately acknowledge their own youth justice policies have become “incoherent” and that they don’t understand them. The state’s formal youth justice strategy says children should be kept out of custody, yet every piecemeal response since 2021 has been designed to imprison more.
Those short-term deflections have caused long-term political problems. Many in Labor believe a reset on the issue is required.
Timing is everything
The main question is whether Palaszczuk will resign. And few within Labor claim to have much insight.
“No one knew she was even going on leave, so your guess about what will happen when she comes back is as good as mine,” said one MP.
“She made a comment [when approached by reporters in Italy] about health problems and we didn’t know anything about that either.”
Several Labor sources believe Palaszczuk might be convinced to step aside if it becomes clear that she cannot win the next election.
“She can be a Labor hero, someone who won three elections and who stood aside for the good of the party,” a Labor MP said.
The clock is ticking. The next state election is in October 2024 – just over a year away. There is a time limit of “a few months” on any decision, or Labor reaches the point of no return.
“Any longer and it would be a hospital pass,” a Labor source said.
“And Annastacia has to think about that too. If there’s one thing that would hurt her legacy, far worse than losing an election, it would be hanging on too long and bailing out when it’s too late.”
