The MAGA foreign policy world spent much of 2024 blaming Joe Biden for involving the US in a proxy war against Russia, being fought by Ukraine.
Now, those same conservatives are engaged in a much different kind of proxy fight. The stakes, however, are very similar.
Pete Hegseth’s career in the Trump administration may already have an expiration date. Despite White House denials and dismissals, the embattled Defense Secretary is reportedly expecting more damaging headlines in the days ahead.
His former deputy, writing in a Monday op-ed for Politico, described the Pentagon as in chaos under Hegseth’s leadership. Hand-picked by Hegseth for the job, the excuse of describing John Ullyot as part of the “Deep State” is not fooling Republicans on the Hill, who are backing away.
One, Don Bacon, called on the former Fox News host to resign in a series of scathing comments to Politico. He’s likely not alone in his concerns; Lisa Murkowski, who voted against his confirmation, said last week that members of her party fear “retaliation” for speaking out.
Donald Trump is sticking by his cabinet secretary — for now. He famously hates being embarrassed by his various deputies, though he dislikes acknowledging his critics or handing them a “win” nearly as much.
But in conservative circles, the discussion over Hegseth’s fate has evolved from palace intrigue and a simple discussion about the secretary’s professionalism to a deeper debate over the two main factions vying for control of the second Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda.
Many believe outright that the criticism of Hegseth is tied to hawkish conservatives seeking to oust one of the administration’s key anti-interventionist voices at a time of upheaval for US-Iran relations. The defense chief is viewed by some observers of the Trump administration as fulfilling a role similar to JD Vance as a counter to national security adviser Mike Waltz, a more traditional conservative.
With talks begun weeks ago in Oman and continuing this past weekend in Rome, the White House is openly pursuing its own agreement aimed at constraining Iran’s nuclear program and preventing the country from continuing on the path to a nuclear weapon.
At the same time, the voices calling for America to take military action are growing louder, too. The New York Times reported last week that the president “waved off” the Israeli government after Benjamin Netanyahu floated a plan to strike Iranian nuclear sites — with US assistance. And hawkish American conservatives are increasingly hardening their tone against any agreement between Washington and Tehran, regardless of any concessions or enforcement measures the Trump administration could secure.
“The Iranians will never agree to end enrichment in nuclear production. An Iran deal would be nothing more than Obama 2.0,” wrote the president’s former primary opponent, Nikki Haley.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, wrote on Sunday: “The Islamic Republic is weaker than ever — hated by most Iranians, hammered by the IDF and Mossad. Its terror armies, air defenses, missile production capability are in ruins. Never a better time to dismantle its nuke program & finish off the regime. Will another POTUS blink?”
On the opposite side are MAGA opponents of “endless war” including Steve Bannon and others in a core constituency of Trump voters who have supported the president since he ridiculed the Iraq War in 2016.
As Bannon wrote on Twitter: it’s “Pete Hegseth vs the military industrial complex”.
“Just days after media reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth discouraged President Trump from attacking Iran, multiple media stories have dropped claiming incompetence and worse on his part,” wrote Ron Paul, long an icon of libertarian-ish Republicans, on Monday.
“Meanwhile three top aides known for a more realist approach to foreign policy have been sacked on dubious grounds,” added the former congressman. “Is Hegseth about to learn what happens when you cross the neocons?”
There’s division, though, among the anti-war right on this issue. Curt Mills, of the American Conservative, pointed to Hegseth’s purging of several top staffers critical of support for an Israeli strike or direct US conflict with Iran (which many argue is one and the same) as he outlined his overview of the secretary’s battle for survival.
“The quick and dirty media narrative pits Hegseth as restrainer against Waltz, etc. This isn’t accurate. (See what Hegseth said on Yemen during Signalgate),” Mills wrote on Monday.
“The reality is operational— Hegseth is just not up to this,” he continued, noting: “Now, hawks — Tom Cotton, and even Waltz — are embracing Hegseth.”
And Dan Caldwell, one of those fired aides, appeared for an interview with Tucker Carlson on Monday where the two insinuated that his opposition to “regime change” was the reason for the “target” on Caldwell’s back at the Pentagon. Carlson, meanwhile, identified a conflict with Iran as the fastest way for the remaining conservative opponents of MAGA-ism to gum up the effort to implement the president’s domestic agenda.
Hegseth’s future is still unclear. NPR reported Monday that Trump is looking for his replacement. The White House denied it with the same language used to deny the very real 90-day tariff pause Trump would later announce.
But if his critics are right, his floundering could end up causing real damage to the power of “America First” conservatives in the administration, and might even hamstring Trump politically at a key moment in his presidency.
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