CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Republican Rep. Ted Budd is “MIA on the campaign trail,” the N.C. Democratic Party said in an August email to supporters.
Budd, who’s running for U.S. Senate, is “in hiding,” former Gov. Pat McCrory, one of Budd’s primary competitors, told Spectrum News in August.
“Where’s Ted Budd?” has emerged as a popular question among observers of North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, particularly among Democrats. The answer, though, may be that Budd’s right where he wants to be.
The Republican congressman and Senate nominee has been tied or nearly tied in recent surveys with Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley, the former state Supreme Court chief justice. He’s also behind in fundraising, with $1.78 million of cash on hand at the beginning of September to Beasley’s $4.82 million.
Beasley’s campaign on social media touts her meetings with voters across the state. She’s committed to a debate Budd’s campaign hasn’t committed to. Budd, like Beasley, has visited every county and also met with small groups of voters, but he’s taken to the road more quietly, said Douglas Wilson, a Democratic political consultant in Charlotte.
So, where is the three-term congressman from Davie County?
Hiding or running a modern campaign?
Budd says he’s feeling good.
In an interview earlier this month, Budd told The Charlotte Observer being tied in the race “says a lot of good things about us” despite Beasley’s impressive fundraising and television ads.
“If that’s all that she can move the needle ... that’s a good sign,” he said. “We know that our message resonates with North Carolinians, whether it’s rural or whether it’s in the cities.”
Republican operative Paul Shumaker, who consulted with McCrory during his primary bid, said the criticism from Democrats that Budd’s campaign has been too quiet reflects an outdated strategy.
The days of old, where candidates drum up support through large, public events, are coming to an end, if they’re not over already, he said.
That isn’t to say that Budd hasn’t campaigned in person. In mid-August he visited Charlotte to talk to the National Asian/ Pacific Island American Chamber of Commerce and Entrepreneurship. On Wednesday he spoke with a panel of sheriffs, state legislators and U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis in Davidson County.
But technology has given political campaigns new tools. They can target voters precisely, figuring out through previous election data who might be on the fence and who to target to drive up turnout.
For Budd to succeed, Shumaker said, he needs enough money to accomplish those goals. Having large events or a big statewide tour are a much lower priority.
“The Democrats may say he’s hiding,” Shumaker said. “I say he’s being smart in that he is most likely taking his campaign to those voters that matter most — he’s able to establish that dialogue.”
In North Carolina’s 2020 U.S. Senate race between Sen. Thom Tillis and Cal Cunningham, Cunningham consistently led in polling from the summer through the fall. He also out-raised Tillis by a wide margin.
Tillis won by more than 95,000 votes, or 1.8%.
Asked what would be his biggest priority if he was in Budd’s camp, Shumaker said he’d try to drive home the narrative that North Carolina is likely to go to Republicans rather than a toss-up. If it’s thought of as a true swing state, outside money to prop up Beasley’s campaign will pour in.
Far less money will come in if the race is seen as a potentially bad investment, Shumaker said, and victory will become more difficult.
The dynamics of the race are changing, though, Wilson said. As Democrats in Congress move on student loan relief and historic climate legislation, voters’ confidence in the party might be rising just when Beasley needs it to.
“Republicans really have to think hard about how they’re going to run in this election, with the party in power actually producing legislation to help out middle-class and poor Americans,” Wilson said.
Inflation, inflation, inflation
Budd’s senior advisor Jonathan Felts said Budd’s message speaks for itself every time a voter goes to the grocery store or the gas pump.
“The high price of gas, that’s crushing family budgets,” Felts said.
Budd’s campaign puts responsibility for inflation squarely on the Biden administration.
“You’re being forced to make hard choices because Joe Biden made bad decisions,” Budd said in a TV advertisement filmed at a grocery store set. In the ad, a girl drops her head in disappointment after her mother tells her to put a package of muffins back on the shelf.
Economists differ on the primary causes of inflation, with Russia’s war in Ukraine, federal government spending and poor decisions by the Federal Reserve System as some of the most commonly-cited culprits.
Wilson, the Democratic strategist from Charlotte, said Republicans shouldn’t be too confident that inflation will play out as a winning talking point.
Gas prices have fallen since June. While it’s unclear whether that will continue, Wilson said that combined with other Democratic victories could take away the economic pains that would otherwise give Republicans a sharper edge.
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is seen by Democrats as a big victory on climate legislation, though the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office concluded it will have a “negligible” impact on inflation in 2022 or 2023. The CHIPS Act is seen by Democrats a victory in American technological independence. Biden’s student loan forgiveness program could bring financial relief for millions.
“Now, Democrats have a record to run on,” Wilson said.
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