Max Verstappen started 2024 with seven victories in 10 grands prix, so it looked as though the Red Bull driver would cruise towards another championship.
But McLaren then made major developments to its car, and the MCL38 is now the quickest package on the Formula 1 grid meaning Red Bull is no longer dominant.
The Woking squad still leads the constructors’ standings, having won four times since Verstappen’s victory in Spain.
Following the Mexican GP, the gap between Verstappen and Lando Norris was down to 47 points.
But Verstappen snapped back in Brazil, producing a masterful drive that has seen him extend his lead ahead of Norris to 62 points.
With all other drivers out of contention for the title, it comes down to the last three rounds in Las Vegas, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi to decide who out of Verstappen and Norris will take the 2024 drivers’ championship.
How can Lando Norris become F1 world champion in 2024?
To stop Verstappen taking the title on the strip in Las Vegas, Norris must outscore him by at least three points. The current gap between the pair is 62 points, and with a maximum of 60 points available after Las Vegas, anything less than three points would make Verstappen’s lead insurmountable.
If Verstappen won the race, he would automatically be crowned champion, even if Norris finished second and took the fastest lap.
|
Situation before |
Las Vegas |
Qatar |
UAE |
|
Points remaining |
86 |
60 |
26 |
|
Norris’ points tally |
357 |
391 |
417 |
|
Verstappen to Norris |
Leading by 36 |
Leading by 2 |
Trailing by 24 |
If Norris took every available point at the remaining three race weekends and Verstappen failed to score again, he would take the championship in Abu Dhabi. It is now impossible for him to win the title any earlier than the season finale.
However, this is highly unlikely, the Australian GP being Verstappen’s only non-score of 2024.
Even if Norris was to win every race with the fastest lap, Verstappen would still need to finish seventh or lower in every race (including the sprint) for Norris to be champion.
Yet Norris only has three victories this season, so it is also unrealistic to expect him to win all of the remaining races. Realistically, Norris needs Verstappen to have a particularly bad weekend or two to take the title.
During the Americas triple-header, Verstappen scored 10 more points than Norris, taking a total of 62 compared to Norris’ 52. Norris needs to flip this script, and significantly so, to take the title.
Verstappen looks to be the favourite to win the 2024 championship, given the large number of points Norris needs to make up.
How can Max Verstappen become F1 world champion in 2024?
The stipulations for Verstappen to become champion are much simpler, because the maximum points tally Norris can finish on this season is 417 - only 24 more than the Dutchman’s current total.
It would be very easy for Verstappen to score 25 points over the next three rounds - as previously mentioned, a win in Vegas would be enough. Following his drive in Brazil, it's not unreasonable to think that he would be able to do that again and win in Las Vegas like he did 12 months ago.
However, Brazil came as a long-awaited victory for Verstappen, the Red Bull driver not winning prior to Brazil since the Spanish GP (not including sprints). And, Brazil was a wet race, conditions Verstappen is known to be masterful in. It seems unlikely that Las Vegas, Qatar, or Abu Dhabi will produce rain, given they are all in the desert.
However, Verstappen has proven he doesn’t need rain to do well. Despite the MCL38 appearing the superior car, Norris still has a big gap to close.
