SAN DIEGO — Here’s where things stand after an eventful start to the Winter Meetings.
• The elite shortstop market is heating up now that the Phillies jumped the competition in true Dave Dombrowski style to grab Trea Turner. The Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves, Twins, Angels and, depending on the Aaron Judge decision, Giants and Yankees still are monitoring the shortstop market. But the Turner contract does not change the money calculus. To lower their potential tax bill, the Phillies added years to Turner’s offer to lower the average annual value to $27.3 million, far below Corey Seager ($32.5M), Francisco Lindor ($34.1) and Carlos Correa ($35.1 million), who is a free agent again after opting out of his deal with the Twins. And Turner preferred the East Coast, limiting the field. Correa could re-set the standard, particularly if the Dodgers or Giants go to a shorter term/high AAV deal.
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• Correa declined from a 20 defensive runs saved fielder in 2021 to 3 in ’22. Did he really get that much worse? Of course not. He changed teams, playing behind different pitching staffs. In ’21, Astros lefthanders induced 403 groundballs. In ’22, Twins lefties threw 194 grounders, the fewest in baseball. No Framber Valdez in Minnesota. The only knock on Correa: his sprint speed the past two years is down from where it was previously, although J.P. Crawford, Seager and Brandon Crawford all rank below him among regular shortstops.
• With the market stepping up for the top available players (Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Turner, Edwin Díaz), Dansby Swanson, considered the fourth best free-agent shortstop, may have more value after Correa and Xander Bogaerts land, simply as a matter of low supply. The case for Swanson: he hits elite velocity. Swanson has hit more home runs off pitches 97 mph or more over the past three seasons than any player in baseball. And don’t discount his winning pedigree. Going back to 2014 at Vanderbilt, Swanson has played on teams with a .572 winning percentage (657–491).
• Turner is athletic enough to become a Robin Yount-type outfielder near the back end of his contract. Correa and Bogaerts are less athletic, especially in regards to speed, but have better bat-to-ball skills. Correa hits elite pitching. Bogaerts had the third best two-strike average last season (.258). Only Javier Báez swung and missed at more breaking balls out of the zone than did Turner—though the gap was enormous: 307–220, which tells you how terrible Baez’s season was.
• At the heels of getting starter Tyler Anderson on a reasonable contract, the Angels made another terrific signing in getting underrated reliever Carlos Estévez, who has a fastball that should play up, especially now that he’s out of Colorado. Estévez throws 97.5 with a below average height release point—a combo that is wicked when he elevates the ball. Batters hit .109 on his elevated four-seamer, with just five hits on 288 pitches. The Angels should encourage more of that.
• From 2016–20, 14 free agents signed contracts worth $100 million or more. In the past two years the count is already at 14, with as many as six more to go this winter.
• You have to love this explanation from Rangers executive vice president and GM Chris Young on giving deGrom five years: “We’re not saying we have all the answers. Nobody does. But sometimes you have to take a swing. And our fans deserve a winner.” Give credit to the Padres, Phillies and Rangers for stepping up in the past few years. Those three teams have accounted for five of the top seven free agent contracts in history (Bryce Harper, Seager, Manny Machado, Turner and Alex Rodriguez). The Yankees account for the other two (Gerrit Cole, Rodriguez).
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• Judge is a career .301/.413/.616 hitter at Yankee Stadium, with the highest slug and OPS of any active hitter in any ballpark (minimum 300 career games). But don’t think his numbers will fall off the cliff if he chooses San Francisco. Judge hits the ball too hard to be affected much by park effects. Statcast calculates Judge would have hit 61 home runs this year if all of his home runs were hit at Oracle Park, compared to 66 at Yankee Stadium. The theoretical most: 73 at Cincinnati and Colorado.
• Harper and Mookie Betts are signed through age 38. deGrom is signed through 39. Turner is signed through age 40. Verlander is signed through 41. Judge will be signed through at least 40. The money committed to older players is increasing after years in which front offices stuck to an aging curve, preferring younger players and trusting no one over 35. What’s behind the trend? 1. Luxury tax accounting tricks (more years, lower AAV). 2. The DH in both leagues. 3. Expectations that the old aging curve model no longer applies thanks to advances in training, conditioning, recovery and all things sports performance related.
