Match Group, Inc. (MTCH), headquartered in Dallas, Texas, is a global provider of online dating services. Valued at $7.7 billion by market cap, the company owns and operates popular platforms like Tinder, Hinge, OkCupid, Match, and more. The leading provider of dating products is expected to announce its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings for 2024 on Tuesday, Feb. 4.
Ahead of the event, analysts expect MTCH to report a profit of $0.54 per share on a diluted basis, down 33.3% from $0.81 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company beat or matched Wall Street’s EPS estimates in its last four quarterly reports.
For the full year, analysts expect MTCH to report EPS of $1.94, down 14.2% from $2.26 in fiscal 2023. However, its EPS is expected to rise 9.8% year over year to $2.13 in fiscal 2025.
MTCH stock has considerably underperformed the S&P 500’s ($SPX) 21.8% gains over the past 52 weeks, with shares down 20.6% during this period. Similarly, it significantly underperformed the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLC)30% gains over the same time frame.
MTCH's underperformance stems from a decline in paid subscriptions and new user sign-ups and reactivations, especially on Tinder, along with reduced operating margins, growing competition in the online dating space, and economic pressures crimping consumer spending. Additionally, foreign exchange fluctuations and unexpected pressure on new user acquisition in late Q3 have weighed on its monthly active users.
On Nov. 6, MTCH shares closed up more than 2% after reporting its Q3 results. Its revenue of $895.5 million, beat Wall Street forecasts of $900.3 million. The company’s EPS was $0.51, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.46. For Q4, MTCH expects revenue to be between $865 million and $875 million.
Analysts’ consensus opinion on MTCH stock is moderately bullish, with a “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Out of 25 analysts covering the stock, 11 advise a “Strong Buy” rating, one suggests a “Moderate Buy,” and 13 give a “Hold.” MTCH’s average analyst price target is $36.88, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% from the current levels.
