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Matthew Southcombe

What to expect from each Welsh region this season as they should and must do better

And just like that, a new United Rugby Championship season is upon us.

This weekend, Wales' four professional sides will get their new campaigns underway, with the Scarlets and Ospreys going at it in the first Welsh derby of the season in Llanelli. Wayne Pivac's Wales side only ended their tour of South Africa mid-July, signalling the end of last term, but the URC is getting fired back up for 2022-23.

A new campaign brings renewed hope - and Welsh rugby needs a little bit of that. Last season was as dark as it gets for the Welsh sides, who all underperformed. After Christmas, dismal performances fuelled a negative atmosphere throughout the game in Wales, which led to more dismal performances.

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But as we head into the 2022/23 season, there is hope that, at least some of the sides, can reach something close to their potential and get themselves into the knockout stages of Europe and the URC play-offs.

There simply has to be an improvement on last year but where should expectation levels be heading into the new term? Let's take a closer look...

Cardiff

The Arms Park outfit have made some interesting signings this summer, which undoubtedly add to the overall quality of their playing squad but it is not as simple as bringing in new faces and hoping results turn a corner.

The Blue and Blacks have been crying out for more strength in their front five for years. Dai Young knows this and has admitted as much in the past but would point out that quality tight-five forwards don't grow on trees and they don't come cheap.

Lock Lopeti Timani has been signed following a one-year stint with Toulon. He had a brief foray into the Test arena with Australia in 2016 but, now 31, will have to prove his worth. Last season he played just 12 out of Toulon's 30 matches but in Cardiff he will be a key player and expected to perform week in, week out.

If Timani is able to bring a harder edge to Cardiff's pack, then he could be a huge asset and will go some way to determining the outcome of their season. Taulupe Faletau and Liam Williams are obviously world class operators but just how big of an impact they're able to have remains to be seen given how much time they'll spend with Wales throughout the year.

Thomas Young is a quality operator but comes into a position where Cardiff already have real strength, so it's hard to say confidently that he will significantly reverse their fortunes.

It's difficult to predict anything other than another mid-table finish for Cardiff this year. Young is yet to really be able to put his stamp on the squad given the contractual situation of the group he inherited, although that could change significantly by this time next year.

Cardiff always enter the season with potential because of the squad they have on paper, but that hasn't translated into success.

A slow start to the season looks more likely than a fast one given that they've only played the one pre-season match. They'll be underdogs in the first two games against Munster and Glasgow, which would make the home game against the Lions pivotal before two derby matches.

They simply have to show something in the first few weeks to convince fans that this is not just going to be the same old Cardiff.

Biggest positive: A backline that can be as sharp as any in the league when they're on the front foot.

Biggest concern: Can Dai Young get a different tune out of the same squad?

Expected finish: 11th

Dragons

The Dragons are a total unknown quantity this year. A plethora of new signings have arrived and a new hierarchy has been established that has seen Dai Flanagan come in as head coach working under Dean Ryan, who has moved up to a director of rugby role.

Quite how all this is going to come out in the wash remains to be seen but there has to be a sense that they can start moving in the right direction, having spent years in the doldrums.

The signings are interesting. Sio Tomkinson from Super Rugby is the one who caught the eye but will have to prove he can cut it in a league where space is at a premium. Wales prop Rob Evans will be motivated to prove he still has something to offer after seeing his career stall in the last three years. If he can stay fit, he could be a huge signing.

Similarly, Max Clark's star has waned slightly since he was linked with a Wales call-up five years ago but if he can rekindle the kind of form that saw him catch Warren Gatland's eye then the Dragons could be onto a winner. Meanwhile, Bradley Roberts will be having a tasty battle with Wales rival Elliot Dee for the No.2 shirt.

On paper, it looks to be the strongest Dragons squad we've seen for years and there is some pressure on Flanagan to make it work. The bare minimum they should be aiming for is to avoid being bottom of the Welsh Shield. Some sort of progress is essential.

Biggest positive: The strongest Dragons squad we've seen in years.

Biggest concern: Can the new head coach get his message across quickly enough? Will all the new faces get on the same page?

Expected finish: 12th

Ospreys

Toby Booth's side have not really recruited this off-season, with Jack Walsh the only signing to speak of. Retention has been the preferred course of action. That brings stability along with it and, frankly, it's time for the Ospreys to deliver.

At their strongest, they should be a match for any team in this competition and anything less than play-offs this term must be deemed a failure. They were set up to be the best Welsh side last year and they just about scraped through to that title by winning the Welsh Shield.

Booth has been in situ now for long enough and has had an opportunity to shape the organisation and instil his philosophies. There is every reason to be optimistic if you're a fan of the Swansea-based outfit, but they really ought to be competing in the knockout stages of the URC and carrying the flag for Wales.

There really isn't too much to analyse here. They have quality in every department of the squad, they tick all the boxes on paper and they've got a settled group of players.

Any starting side that boasts the likes of Dewi Lake, Adam Beard, Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric, Rhys Webb, Gareth Anscombe and George North - there would be roughly 11 Welsh internationals in the full strength starting side - should be competing at the top end of the table.

Richard Fussell as their new attack coach, in succession to Brock James. And former Wales U20 and Scarlets forwards chief Richard Kelly has taken over as transition coach. The pair will work under Booth, with Duncan Jones continuing as first-team coach.

The key is going to be how the Ospreys manage during the international windows, when they are likely to lose a significant portion of their squad and how fit the squad can stay.

It's time for the Ospreys to really puff their chests out, perform consistently, make the Swansea.com Stadium a difficult place to go and leave a mark on the league. They have to have lofty ambitions this term. Their pre-season was not interrupted like the others as they started their tune-up matches a week earlier and got each of them played. There aren't many excuses.

Biggest positive: There are no gaps in the squad. From 1-23 they have the talent to cause problems for any side in the league.

Biggest concern: How often will the strongest XV take the field together and how will they manage the loss of Test stars?

Expected finish: 5th

Scarlets

And so to the Scarlets. There is every expectation that Dwayne Peel will prove to be a good head coach and we could really see that shine through in his second season back at his old stomping ground.

They've made a change at defence coach. Hugh Hogan didn't really work out and he's gone after a year. The Scarlets didn't have problems scoring tries last term but they just conceded far too many points. Gareth Williams has left his role with Wales to pick up that position and the hope is he'll shore things up.

That appointment alone could see a dramatic shift in the club's fortunes if they are able to just cut down the number of tries they concede because they were involved in far too many high scoring matches last term. Great for the neutral, but not conducive to climbing the table.

Recruitment has been limited but the signing of Vaea Fifita, who Wasps really didn't want to see head out the exit door, looks to be an impressive acquisition. Similar to the Ospreys, how they manage the international periods will be key to their season but they should be rivalling their nearest and dearest for that Welsh Shield and pushing for the play-offs.

Also, there is absolutely no reason why they shouldn't be looking to go deep into the European Challenge Cup. They should do better than last term.

Biggest positive: A settled team littered with quality, who have proven they can be a potent attacking force.

Biggest concern: How quickly can the defence be sorted?

Expected finish: 7th

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