Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China soared sequentially in the last week of the first quarter, marking the company's highest weekly total of 2025. Meanwhile, the EV giant reports global Q1 vehicle delivery data Wednesday with analysts expecting the lowest delivery total since Q3 2022. TSLA shares advanced Tuesday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled around 20,700 for the week of March 24-30, up about 21% from 17,000 the previous week, according to data compiled by independent China auto industry trackers.
Insurance registrations for Tesla vehicles in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are down more than 30% compared to last quarter but are now up about 2% vs. a year ago. Beginning in the last week of February into early March, Tesla China insurance registrations increased each week, likely reflecting demand for the refreshed Model Y. Tesla's insurance registration total last week marks the fourth highest week ever for the company.
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Tesla China on Monday announced it would offer three-year, zero-interest financing to customers who purchase a revamped Model Y long range trim before April 30. That means that now all of the updated Model Y vehicles have the zero financing incentive. The delivery wait time for the long-range Model Y has declined from 6-10 weeks to 3-5 weeks, according to CnEVPost.
The China vehicle insurance data comes as Tesla reports global first-quarter vehicle deliveries on Wednesday with earnings and revenue coming at the end of April.
Tesla Q1 Deliveries
Analysts in recent days and weeks have been hastily revising lower Q1 delivery expectations ahead of Wednesday's release. Along with first-quarter vehicle delivery data, Tesla will also on Wednesday post Q1 production figures as well as energy storage deployed.
Tesla is expected to see Q1 vehicle deliveries increase 5.4% to 407,900 as of FactSet estimates, which have declined 10% since Jan. 31. However, Tesla investor relations' compiled delivery consensus number is 377,592, based on several analyst estimates. That would be the lowest since Q3 2022.
Tesla Quarterly Deliveries Could Be The Lowest In More Than Two Years
The most timely delivery estimates are between 315,000-369,000, which would be well below Q1 2024's 386,810.
Troy Teslike, whose delivery estimates and Tesla data tracking are closely watched among retail Tesla investors, on Monday posted to X he believes Tesla deliveries will total 355,000 in Q1.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA advanced 3.6% to 268.46, hitting 277.45 intraday, during Tuesday's stock market action. TSLA dropped 1.7% to 259.16 on Monday amid broader weakness and as Q1 delivery expectations came down.
On Friday, TSLA fell 3.5%. Shares did jump 6% for the week, snapping a nine-week losing streak, but hit resistance at the 40-week moving average. Going into Tuesday's stock market, TSLA was up around 19% since hitting its March low.
The EV giant entered Tuesday's stock market down 35.8% so far in 2025, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500 this year.
Tesla stock has a 21-day average true range of 7.44%. The ATR metric is available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool. It gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.
In the current market, IBD suggests stocks with ATRs of 3% or below.
Tesla stock ranks fourth in the 35-stock IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 63 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 54 Relative Strength Rating and an 84 EPS Rating.
Please follow Kit Norton on X @KitNorton for more coverage.
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