Sometimes, it is just obvious that a young player is going to go far in the game.
Maybe there’s one moment that flicks on the switch for those who are watching.
Anyone viewing Gavin Henson for the first time during the encounter at Swansea when he took a high pass, pirouetted and in the same movement unleashed a drop-goal from 45 metres which sailed high between the posts would have been absolutely certain the then youngster would go on to enjoy a stellar career.
A hard-pushed hack sending over running copy from the old press box at St Helen’s asked if anyone had logged the exact minute of the three pointer. “Never mind the minute — just remember you were here when it happened,” advised a wise owl from the row behind the media seats.
Then there was Shane Williams, playing scrum half for Neath and rocketing clear from halfway from a scrum for a try no opposition side would have been able to prevent. Pace and opportunism — Williams wasn’t so much operating at a different level as his opponents that day, as playing a different game.
But not every bright young thing comes through. Not every promising teenager develops into a player who can cope with the challenges of senior rugby.
Warren Gatland once said: “We've all seen talented young players who get to a certain level but there comes a point where that talent will only take you so far. The great players go away and work on extra things. They work harder on their skills, they start having early nights and they think about their diet and training. That is what takes them to the next level.”
Of course, injuries can intervene; occasionally, opportunities simply don’t open up at the right time.
Sometimes it’s just not meant to be.
Three-and-a-half years ago, Wayne Pivac announced his first Wales squad, to face the Barbarians in Cardiff. He also invited four young players to train with those called up, presumably on the basis that he felt they all had the potential to go far in the game.
Last week, one of them found himself cut from his region’s plans, his future in the game uncertain.
But there has been success for two of the others. Here are the stories of the four:
Kieran Hardy (scrum-half)
The oldest of the batch of players Pivac summoned in what we can style apprentice capacity, Hardy had returned to the Scarlets after a career relaunch with Jersey.
He had headed for the English Championship to bank regular rugby and develop his game, and Hardy came back to Llanelli looking the part. He had an eye for a gap and was quick enough to trouble defences.
A senior Wales debut followed in November 2020 with the west Walian since taking his cap haul to 17. Last summer he started all three Tests for Wales in their series against South Africa, impressing with his box-kicking.
He began just one game on Warren Gatland’s watch during this year’s Six Nations but is still very much in World Cup contention and had a fine game in the Judgement Day encounter with the Dragons, standing out while team-mates faltered.
Ioan Davies (full-back)
Not everyone would have noticed this youngster’s name amid better-known players that were released by regions last week.
But Davies has a back story. Rewind to 2018 and he took the field for Wales against England in an Under-18 clash at Sardis Road. The hosts had Louis Rees-Zammit and Sam Costelow in their starting line-up, with Jac Morgan on the bench, but they were smashed up front by a physical England side who swept to a 42-14 victory.
The best Welsh player by some distance that day was Davies.
Every bomb sent up by England’s battery of kickers was expertly defused, with the full-back also putting in countless tackles and scoring a solo try from 45 metres out.
One the day, young Davies played as well as anyone on the pitch, the winners included.
But it’s been tough for him so far in senior rugby.
From Cardiff, he joined the Dragons on loan and did enough to secure a permanent deal with Dean Ryan calling him ‘outstanding’ after a game against Glasgow Warriors. He started only four matches in two seasons, though, before the news came last week that the east Wales region were letting him go.
Call that a setback. At 23, he’s young enough to still make a significant mark.
But he’ll need fortune to smile on him and he’ll need to work at his game.
That call from Pivac seems a long time ago.
Tiaan Thomas-Wheeler (centre)
Here’s another one who’s encountered challenges at senior level.
He made 58 appearances over five years for the Ospreys but found it hard to nail down a regular starting spot amid hot competition for midfield places with Michael Collins, George North, Owen Watkin, Keiran Williams and Joe Hawkins in the mix this season.
With Welsh rugby being squeezed financially, it wasn’t easy to see the outlook improving significantly for TTW.
Still, his decision to head for Japan last month was a surprise. At 6ft 3in and 15st 10lb and not short on skill, he was tipped for big things coming through.
He could hardly be missed with his bright orange boots, but there seemed to be substance to go with the style.
“He’s a fine young player with a lot going for him,” said then Ospreys coach Gruff Rees as Thomas-Wheeler emerged on the scene.
“It is early days and he has a lot of work to do, but he reminds me a bit of Ashley Beck with the way he carries himself and he is a nice passer of a ball who can make a break. He has the potential to be an elite player.”
It may still happen, but Thomas-Wheeler has taken a roundabout route in heading for the Far East, where he is attached to Toyota Industries Shuttles.
Dewi Lake (hooker)
Lake had already captained Wales at the 2019 edition of the World Rugby U20 Championship when he received his call from Pivac.
Such were his performances at the event in Argentina that it looked a fair bet to suggest a glowing future was on the horizon.
It still looks that way. The 6ft 1in, 17st 4lb hooker has won eight senior caps for Wales and is proving a force to be reckoned with.
A converted back rower, he needs to keep working at his throwing but he has improved on that score and the rest of his game is coming together. His plus point is his physicality, with the Osprey powerful with ball in hand and hard-hitting in defence. He also has a penchant for turnovers.
Jonathan ‘Jiffy’ Davies has tipped him as a future Wales captain.
Steering clear of injuries is an ongoing challenge because of the way he plays the game, but Lake’s potential as one of Welsh rugby’s best young players is undiminished.
There are not many better prospects in the game.
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