A missile has killed two people in Poland near its border with Ukraine. But the Polish President Andrzej Duda has said it appears to have been an “unfortunate accident”, not an “intentional attack”.
Key questions remain around the strike which came amid a barrage of Russian air strikes across Ukraine. Mr Duda has said the hit, which killed two people on Tuesday evening, was not an attack on his country by Russia and there is a “high probability” Ukrainian defence forces were involved.
US President Joe Biden, who said the missile was “unlikely” to have been fired from Russia, called an emergency meeting of G7 and Nato leaders over fears that a deliberate attack on Nato member Poland could trigger a collective military response by the alliance - called Article 5.
Article 5 is possibly the most well-known part of the North Atlantic Treaty. It is centred on collective defence, meaning that an attack against one ally is considered as an attack against all allies.
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It wasn't triggered when Russia invaded Ukraine as Ukraine isn't a NATO member. But, as Poland is a member of NATO, an attack on the country could result in Article 5 being invoked.
Article 4, meanwhile, is the beginning of the formal consultation with the threatened ally about the issue. According to NATO's website: "In Article 4 of NATO’s founding treaty, members can bring any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country, to the table for discussion within the North Atlantic Council."
All NATO decisions are made by consensus, after discussion and consultation among member countries. Since NATO's creation in 1949, Article 4 has been triggered seven times.
The most recent was February 2022, when Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia requested to hold consultations under Article 4 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine
On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky condemned the missile attack as “a very significant escalation”, but Russia denied any involvement in the Poland blast. Three US officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the targeting of Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure on Tuesday.
That assessment and Mr Biden’s comments at the G20 summit in Indonesia contradict information earlier on Tuesday from a senior US intelligence official who told the Associated Press that Russian missiles had crossed into Poland. The Polish government said it was investigating and raising its level of military preparedness.
A statement from the Foreign Ministry identified the weapon as made in Russia. Mr Duda said: “We have no proof at this point to suggest the missile was fired by the Russian side.
“Ukraine’s defence was launching their missiles in various directions and it is highly probable that one of these missiles unfortunately fell on Polish territory."
His comments were echoed by Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg, who said a “preliminary analysis” suggested it was a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend against Russian cruise missile attacks.
After a meeting of the North Atlantic Council, Mr Stoltenberg said there was no indication Russia was preparing military action against Nato members. He said: “We have no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack.
“I have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military action against Nato. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks.
“But let me be clear, this is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”
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