We were so close.
Week 12 very nearly became the most consequential in a season that has featured some absolutely wild weekends. One team in the top five lost in Tennessee — which was demolished by Spencer Rattler and South Carolina — and three more almost suffered the same fate.
Both Michigan and Ohio State were on the ropes against Illinois and Maryland, respectively, and needed comebacks to stay undefeated. TCU, meanwhile, pulled out perhaps its most improbable victory of the season to remain perfect.
Still, considering how much of a snooze-fest the weekend before rivalry week often becomes, it’s hard to complain about the product we received on Saturday. Here are the winners and losers from Week 12 with a focus on College Football Playoff implications as we prepare for the final week of the regular season.
Winner: The Game maintains its shine
We have yet another Game of the Century next weekend — the second in a month, if my count is correct — but it very nearly lost quite a bit of luster as Ohio State and Michigan almost squandered their unbeaten records.
The Buckeyes were in a shootout on the road against Taulia Tagovailoa and Maryland, and the 43-30 final score doesn’t exactly illustrate how close this one was given the fact that OSU scored on a fumble returned for a touchdown at the very end.
The Wolverines had an even closer call, needing a game-winning field goal with nine seconds left while trailing by one against Illinois. Both these teams will enter The Game undefeated, and the winner will have the inside track to a playoff spot if it can beat the Big Ten West champion (which will likely be Iowa) in Indianapolis.
The Big Ten, Fox and College GameDay all breathe a collective sigh of relief.
Loser: Tennessee kisses its CFP chances goodbye
In spite of the fact that its 27-13 loss to Georgia a few weeks ago felt like an exposing of sorts, the Vols’ playoff goals were hardly interrupted by it. In fact, they still had a relatively smooth path to the CFP if they finished the regular season without suffering another setback, even without an SEC title on the resume.
Those hopes have now been officially dashed after Tennessee was embarrassed in a 63-38 loss to South Carolina in which its defense had absolutely no answer for a Gamecock offense that was playing out of its mind.
The offense had success in this game, but it slowed down in the second half and ultimately couldn’t keep up. To add insult to injury, Heisman-contending quarterback Hendon Hooker was lost for the season to a torn ACL, which was suffered in the waning minutes of a lost cause without contact.
It was an absolutely devastating result across the board for Tennessee, which is now likely eliminated from playoff contention in what may be its best season in more than 20 years.
Winner: USC stays alive
It’s been easy to declare the Pac-12’s playoff hopes dead at several points this season, and it’s still far from a given after the league’s best hope in USC took down rival UCLA in a 48-45 shootout to clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship.
But Tennessee’s loss will go a long way toward helping the Trojans’ chances, and regardless of whether they face Oregon, Washington or Utah in the title game, they will end the year with back-to-back ranked wins if they win out as they close the regular season against Notre Dame.
This team has some holes, but in Year 1, Lincoln Riley has built an elite offense and boasts a plus-21 turnover margin, far and away the best mark in the FBS — both this year and in recent memory. That’s a pretty good recipe for success, and USC should be feeling good about its postseason chances, which would get even better with a TCU loss.
Just a note: The worst-case scenario for the Trojans would be an LSU upset over Georgia in the SEC Championship.
Loser: North Carolina is out of the picture
Though it was unlikely, you had to at least consider ACC Coastal champion North Carolina as a factor in the playoff discussion. The one-loss Tar Heels’ only slipup came against Notre Dame, which looks much better than it did at the time, and a win over Clemson in Charlotte would have been an impressive way to close out the season.
About that…
We don’t need to worry about this team in the CFP discussion anymore after a 21-17 loss to Georgia Tech and interim coach Brent Key. For as much talk as there has been about UNC’s defensive struggles, the offense and true freshman quarterback Drake Maye looked human for the first time this season.
North Carolina probably wasn’t going to the playoff, if we’re being honest, but this is one less factor we have to worry about as we follow the CFP race. Key, meanwhile, adds a second ranked win to his resume as he will prepare to plead his case for the full-time job in Atlanta this offseason. However, he would need a win as a massive underdog against Georgia to take this team to a bowl.
Winner: TCU and the apparent supernatural powers of the Hypnotoad
Folks, I regret to inform you that TCU may keep getting away with it.
The Horned Frogs are no stranger to the comeback, and they’ve completed several of varying degrees of improbability. But what they did on Saturday against Baylor in Waco is just a different level. It simply isn’t fair.
Trailing 28-26 but driving for the win on the final possession of the game, coach Sonny Dykes opted for what was legitimately one of the most mind-boggling endgame strategies I’ve ever seen. After spiking the ball on second down in field goal range with no timeouts, the Frogs ran the ball on third down with just 17 seconds remaining.
That meant the field goal team had to run onto the field and attempt a game-winner from 40 yards out despite the fact that kicker Griffin Kell didn’t even have time to walk out his steps in preparation. Of course, Kell drilled it through the uprights as TCU celebrated another stunning win.
Would Dykes have been — rightfully — raked for this if it didn’t work? Certainly. But it did.
It’s all but a guarantee this team will be heading to the CFP for the first time if it wins out, and no team has had to survive while on the ropes more than the Horned Frogs have this season.
Loser: Oklahoma State stumbles again
At 7-4 with a chance to finish with eight wins against a bad West Virginia team, this season is going to end up being about in line, results-wise, with the norm under Mike Gundy in Stillwater. But don’t let that distract you from a team that has been absolutely horrible over the last month.
Saturday’s 28-13 loss to rival Oklahoma was the latest disappointing outcome. This game could have been a lot worse as it was 28-0 in the first quarter before the Sooners slowed down. Regardless, losing like this to the worst Oklahoma team in literal decades is not the result you want to see from OSU, especially in a follow-up to last year’s 12-win season that featured a trip to the Big 12 Championship and a Fiesta Bowl win.
The Cowboys have lost three of their last four, and those losses to Kansas State, Kansas and OU came by a combined 113-29 margin. The only win in that stretch came over a struggling Iowa State team by six points.
This team returned veteran quarterback Spencer Sanders and added one of college football’s best defensive minds to the coaching staff in Derek Mason to replace outgoing Jim Knowles. There’s simply no excuse for the way this team is playing down the stretch.
Winner: Oregon flips the script against Utah
Oregon was embarrassed twice in three weeks last season against Utah as what looked like a potential playoff team collapsed down the stretch. The Ducks aren’t a threat to make the CFP this year with two losses on their resume, but they’re a win away from a trip to the conference title game after it turned things around on coach Kyle Whittingham’s team Saturday.
Oregon won 20-17 despite being led by a clearly hobbled Bo Nix, who performed admirably in spite of its limitations. The Ducks played a much more physical brand of football than it did in these matchups last season, holding the run game in check and forcing three interceptions from Utah quarterback Cam Rising.
If Oregon can beat rival Oregon State in the Civil War next weekend, it will go to the Pac-12 title game in Year 1 under Dan Lanning, whose only losses were in Week 1 against Georgia and to a Washington team also in the midst of a Year 1 resurgence with a new coach.
Quick Hitters - Winners
- Old School Football: Indiana handed Michigan State its sixth loss of the season in double overtime, scoring 39 points despite going 2 of 7 for 31 passing yards in a snowy game in East Lansing. Not to be outdone, Navy upset UCF to put a damper on the Knights’ NY6 hopes despite going just 0 for 1 in the passing game all day on Saturday.
- LSU and Clemson: We have a Tiger two-for-one as both teams won against cupcake opponents in UAB and Miami. Both also saw their playoff chances improve with Tennessee’s loss, as the Vols would have had a strong argument over an SEC Champion LSU with one fewer loss and a head-to-head win. Clemson, meanwhile, probably still needs more help.
- UCF’s Victims: With the Knights’ loss, the teams whose seasons they spoiled in Cincinnati and Tulane return to the fold in the race for a New Year’s Six spot. They face this week with the winner heading to the championship in a rematch against UCF, assuming coach Gus Malzahn’s team doesn’t slip up against 1-10 South Florida. The AAC Champion is likely heading to the NY6.
- Virginia Tech: It’s been a bad Year 1 for the Hokies, but they won against a pretty good Liberty team and avoided losing two road games to in-state Group of Five opponents in the same season.
- James Madison: The Dukes orchestrated an impressive come-from-behind win against Georgia State, winning 42-40 after trailing 27-7 at one point. JMU is 7-3, and it’s a shame this team won’t be eligible for the postseason.
- Louisville: The Cardinals pulled off another nice win, beating ranked NC State by two scores. Scott Satterfield entered the year on the hot seat, but he has this team playing pretty well.
- Auburn: A 41-17 win over an electric Western Kentucky team may honestly be more impressive than a three-point win over Texas A&M.
- Oklahoma: This is still going to be a tough offseason for the Sooners, but avoiding a loss to the Cowboys will keep things manageable for Brent Venables, at least for now.
- South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler: A change of scenery hasn’t gone the way many expected for Rattler, but he showed flashes of the former five-star recruit and redshirt freshman standout at Oklahoma in the win over Tennessee. He threw for six touchdowns in a fantastic performance and will look to lead the Gamecocks to another upset against Clemson next week.
- Fresno State: Jeff Tedford’s second stint with the Bulldogs is off to a great start as they have won six straight games and clinched the West Division title with a 41-14 win over Nevada.
- Boise State: In a wild finish, the Broncos staved off a potential game-winning drive against Wyoming in the de facto Mountain Division title game with an interception in the end zone. Boise will face Fresno State in a battle of teams with impressive turnarounds this year.
Quick Hitters - Losers
- Michigan State: With the ugly loss to Indiana, the Spartans will need to pull off a pretty big upset against Penn State to go bowling. It’s a disappointing result in Year 3 for Mel Tucker, but the hot seat is not a concept that will apply here for a long, long time. MSU will have to put its faith in Tucker to right the ship here.
- UCF: The Knights may still be a factor in the NY6 race, but losing to a down Navy team in November is not the kind of result this program is accustomed to.
- Ole Miss: Going from almost knocking off Alabama to getting your teeth kicked in by Arkansas? Such is life in the SEC West.
- West Virginia: The Mountaineers weren’t particularly competitive at home against what is, in all fairness, a very good Kansas State team. Still, even with the win over Oklahoma and a pricey buyout, it feels like the Neal Brown era may be coming to an end here.
- Liberty: After back-to-back losses to UConn and Virginia Tech (who may be worse than UConn), maybe Hugh Freeze’s name will stop coming up at Auburn and elsewhere.
- Iowa State: After losing 14-10 to Texas Tech, the Cyclones are now 1-6 this fall in one-score games and have already been eliminated from bowl contention. Remember when Matt Campbell was seen as a hotshot coaching candidate?
- UNLV: The Rebels started the season 4-1 and seemed to be at a turning point under coach Marcus Arroyo. They’re now 4-7 after a loss to a Hawaii team that redefines the term “rebuilding,” and there may be a referendum on the third-year coach, who is just 6-22.
