The government is being urged to pour more funding into the care system after new projections showed the country is facing a social care timebomb as the number of over-85s is set to double over the next two decades.
Ramzi Suleiman, policy and public affairs manager at the Carers Trust, issued a stark warning to the government, arguing that the sector is “nowhere near ready for this rise in older people” as it is “already creaking at the seams”.
Projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that, by mid-2047, the number of over-85 will have nearly doubled to 3.3 million, representing 4.3 per cent of the total UK population. This is an increase from 1.7 million in mid-2022, when they made up 2.5 per cent of the population.
The rise comes partly because of the larger numbers of people born in the 1960s, who would be aged over-80 in 2047, as well as general increases in life expectancy, the ONS said.
The warnings came after the government confirmed earlier this month that major social care reforms would not be delivered until 2028, with an independent commission chaired by Baroness Louise Casey launching in spring.
The government has pledged to introduce a National Care Service – but it is unclear what this would look like in practice.
Responding to the figures, Green Party MP Ellie Chowns warned that older populations have been “left out in the cold by successive governments who have refused to get to grips with the social care crisis we face”.
“This issue will only worsen over the years to come, contributing to spiralling costs and NHS backlogs,” Ms Chowns told The Independent, calling for the government to “properly fund social care” to ensure people have the frontline services that they need.
Alison Bennett, care spokesperson for the Liberal Democrats, warned that the government’s “dither and delay on social care will only make matters worse”.
“Across the country we are already seeing thousands of people, who are well enough to be discharged, stuck in hospital beds and unable to leave because social care simply doesn’t exist”, she told The Independent. “These figures show in stark relief that the longer they ignore the crisis, the more social care costs will crush council budgets and lead to unnecessary suffering for individuals.
“That’s why we need the social care commission to be done and dusted within a year at most, it is more pressing than ever. We can then finally move on with implementing much-needed reforms after too many years of inaction.”
Mr Suleiman added: “The social care sector is nowhere near ready for this rise in older people. It’s already creaking at the seams and there is huge unmet need, with less than half of older people with care needs getting the help they should. Meanwhile, unpaid carers are having to fill the gaps by looking after family and friends at home.
“This is just further evidence that action is needed right now to fix the social care crisis. We can’t wait another 10 years. And it’s not just social care that isn’t ready. This demographic shift will require millions more of us to provide care. Without changes to the world of work and extra support, many of those carers will be forced to leave their jobs, at huge costs to themselves and the wider economy.”
The ONS’s figures also sparked further calls to clamp down on migration, as the projections indicated that net migration will push the population up by 5 million from 2022 levels, to 72.5 million people by mid-2032.
Responding, shadow home secretary Chris Philp said this “shocking and unacceptable projection can and must be stopped from materialising”.
The senior Conservative called for a binding legal cap on the number of visas issued each year, and said millions of economically inactive adults in the UK should be encouraged back into work to lower the country’s reliance on immigration.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage also weighed in, warning: “The population explosion is damaging the quality of life for everyone. Both Labour and the Tories are equally guilty.”
While Downing Street rejected Mr Philp’s calls to bring in a legally binding cap on migration, a spokesperson said the projections “underline the need to act to bring down net migration substantially”.
“The prime minister doesn’t think that setting an arbitrary cap that previous governments have done is the way forward. That’s why we’re putting in place the policies that will actually deliver that,” the spokesperson explained.
But Ms Chowns warned the social care sector would “collapse tomorrow if it wasn’t for those moving to this country and providing the care our loved ones rely on”.
“We owe it to them to properly fund social care that can offer the care people need in their own homes. This is a political choice, we can choose to properly tax wealth in this country to fund the frontline services that people need,” she said.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Costs of care are set to double in the next 20 years, and this will demand long-term action.
“The Casey commission will work to build a national consensus around a new National Care Service that is fair, affordable and able to meet the needs of older and disabled people into the 21st century.
“The first report is due in 2026 and the government is delivering urgent improvements to adult social care now, promoting better use of care technologies and professionalising the social care workforce.”
