The difference between Ireland and Wales in World Rugby’s official rankings is roughly the same as the gap between Wales and Portugal — around 12 percentage points, for those who are counting.
Ireland are in top spot, Wales are ninth.
On the surface, then, the men in green should be well placed to prevail in the Six Nations opener in Cardiff on Saturday.
But Warren Gatland is back in town as Wales head coach and that will make the Irish wary.
We look at the head-to-head ratings for the match at the Principality Stadium.
Liam Williams 7 v 8 Hugo Keenan
Williams was a late replacement for Leigh Halfpenny after the Scarlet pulled out injured with a back spasm on Friday. He has played little rugby this season but is a warrior who'll relish the chance to have tilt at the world's number one ranked team.
Wales will look to him to defuse the kicking threat of Ireland’s half-backs., while Ireland will be wary of the Cardiff man's ability to break from anywhere.
Keenan is rated highly enough for some to ask whether he’s the best full-back in world rugby. Not only is the Leinster player fast and blessed with good hands, he is also safe under the high ball and a decent defender. If a Lions Test side were being picked tomorrow, he’d be there or thereabouts for a place, Freddie Steward or no Freddie Steward.
Josh Adams 8 v 7 Mack Hansen
Adams is having an excellent season, with nine tries from as many outings for Cardiff. He’s scored in every one of his last eight matches for the club. His all-round game has been good as well and he always plays as if it means it. Rare is the match when he’s off form.
Looking back on another life, Hansen once viewed himself as “probably the worst electrician in Canberra”. But the lights come on when he has the ball in rugby. He’s a player with a flair for the unexpected and he was man of the match against Wales last year on his Test debut. A relative newcomer to the Test scene, he looks the part, but Gatland’s team will want to test his defence.
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George North 8 v 8 Garry Ringrose
Ringrose is seen in Ireland as a worthy heir to Brian O’Driscoll’s throne, which tells you all you need to know about him. He is quick enough to break on the outside, defends well and has sharp footwork.
A tough challenge for North, then, but on a good day the Wales man can combat most with his winger’s speed and immense power. His match-settling turnover from the Ospreys against Montpellier recently shone a light on breakdown skills that O’Driscoll — him again — would be tempted to sign off.
Joe Hawkins 6 v 7 Stuart McCloskey
Hawkins is going to be a top-quality player. He has time on the ball and as a former fly-half he has a decent kicking game; he can also truck play up and hit solidly in defence. In short, he could be the footballing option at inside centre that Wales have been looking for. Certainly, against Australia in November he looked the part.
Counting against the 20-year-old is his inexperience, but so far in his short senior career to date he has coped with every challenge that’s been thrown at him.
McCloskey is a hard-runner who’s been one of the top-performing centres in the United Rugby Championship and its previous incarnations for years, yet he has only 10 caps. Wales won’t want to give him front-foot ball.
Rio Dyer 6 v 7 James Lowe
Maybe there’s a case for Dyer having a higher mark, because he is an electric runner and he believes in himself. He has confidence in abundance and that can count for a lot. When he made his Wales debut in November, against New Zealand, he wasn’t fazed in the slightest.
But he’s also inexperienced at Test level, something Ireland will try to exploit.
Lowe can be up and down. On a good day, he’s into everything and a threat from anywhere on the pitch; on a bad day, opposition teams can play on him.
Dan Biggar 8 v 9 Johnny Sexton
Two old masters, with 70 years between them, but both still playing well. Indeed, Sexton made the shortlist for World Rugby’s player of the year award for 2022. The suspicion is he would have bossed around Attila the Hun had they played in the same rugby team together, but Sexton’s authority and leadership is crucial to Ireland. With his sharp appreciation of tactics, will to win and expert game control, he is a player who, more than any other, lifts the men in green from being a good team to being a very good side.
Can Wales rattle him? They will need to.
Biggar is not wildly dissimilar, as a player who would happily argue with an angry bear if it improved his team’s prospects of winning by even a smidgeon. When he is absent, he is missed. Wales will look to him to set the right tone.
Tomos Williams 7 v 8 Jamison Gibson-Park
How Wales could do with Tomos Williams banging in one of his best games this weekend. On form, he’s a threat to any opposition team with his skill, opportunism and eye for a gap.
Gibson-Park is fast to rucks and whips the ball away before some opponents know he’s even arrived. He can also box-kick accurately and has become a key component of this Ireland side. Again, it will be up to Wales to slow down Irish ball and so blunt their No. 9’s ability to operate at pace.
Gareth Thomas 7 v 7 Andrew Porter
Thomas had a fine 2022, only once hitting problems at scrum time at Test level, and that was against New Zealand when the Welsh set-piece as a whole was sending out distress signals. Even then, Thomas distinguished himself with his defensive work around the field. He is one of the best chop tacklers in the game and Irish ball-carriers could be forgiven for trying to avoid him on Saturday.
Porter played a key role in Ireland outmuscling Wales in Dublin a year ago, but after converting from tighthead to loosehead he is still settling in his new role and Tomas Francis will want to assess how much he still has to learn in the No. 1 jersey.
Ken Owens 7 v 7 Dan Sheehan
Sheehan is like an extra back rower with his workrate around the pitch. Regularly, he piles up big tackling and carrying figures. He was part of a Leinster front row that had endured a scrummaging misadventure against the Ospreys in Swansea recently, but is very highly rated across the Irish Sea.
Wales skipper Owens is a leader who is granite hard and an example to others. Expect him to lead the charge for his team this weekend.
Tomas Francis 7 v 7 Finlay Bealham
Ireland will miss Tadhg Furlong. Any side would miss arguably the best tighthead prop in the world. Bealham is more than capable and has been a consistent player for Connacht for a number of years, but this is his first Six Nations start, albeit he's been on the Test scene since 2016.
Francis has been a central part of a dominant Ospreys scrum and is capable of causing problems in that area. When the former Exeter Chief is not around for the national team he’s missed. Just maybe, Wales may quietly fancy their chances in the pushing and shoving game.
Adam Beard 7 v 8 Tadhg Beirne
A good contest in prospect here, featuring two players who are set to prove ultra-important to their sides on the day. Beard is having a strong season at regional level, a reliable source of lineout ball and an excellent defender whose work at mauls is top class. If his carrying could still be improved, he has made big efforts in that area.
Beirne is a lock with a renowned and voracious appetite and skill for achieving turnovers. He can alter a game with his extraordinary ability to fashion priceless possession shifts. The Munster man is a useful lineout forward as well, albeit not quite at Beard’s level.
Alun Wyn Jones 7 v 7 James Ryan
There has been some chatter about Jones starting in a Test at the age of 37, but watch the tape of the recent Leicester Tigers v Ospreys game: he was one of the top performers on the field, with him and Beard doing a job on the home lineout and imposing themselves physically. His scrummaging, too, has been important to the Swansea.com Stadium region.
Ryan is a threat at the lineout and works hard in all areas.
The challenge for Wales is to ask questions of him.
Jac Morgan 8 v 8 Peter O’Mahony
Wales will know all about O’Mahony. He is rough, tough and not obviously blessed with the fear gene. “After you, Claude,” are not words that tend to tumble out of his mouth at ruck time. This is a man who spends his working life in harm’s way, and he is difficult to play against, a brilliant poacher of opposition lineout ball and a nuisance in general play.
Morgan is 10 years younger and will hope to bring his boundless energy and raw physicality to the table, with his strength and low centre of gravity enabling him to break tackles. He is also a ferocious competitor at the breakdown and a resolute tackler.
Justin Tipuric 9 v 9 Josh van der Flier
Pretty much anyone else going head to head with World Rugby’s player of the year might expect to come out second best in terms of ratings, but Tipuric is an extraordinary player with all the skills and a steely attitude. As a lineout forward, he is world-class, while he doesn’t stop grafting in defence and can change games in attack.
He’s up against someone who piles up mountains of tackles and has improved his speed into contact. With van der Flier, there are impacts all over the pitch.
It will be a battle of the scrum caps, then, Tipuric’s blue against van der Flier’s red, and it should be worth the admission money on its own.
Taulupe Faletau 9 v 8 Caelan Doris
Anyone who gets the nod over Jack Conan and Gavin Coombes must have plenty going for him, and Doris certainly does. He performed as well as any Irish player during the November Tests, with the Leinster man the one green shirt to truly deliver in an out-of-sorts team display against Australia. He unfailingly makes ground with ball in hand, providing his side with the quick ball they relish. Warren Gatland will have identified him as a player Wales have to stop.
But he’s up against an opponent who has seen it all in Test rugby — seen it all and so has the invaluable experience that can make the difference when it matters. Faletau appears to be everywhere at once, yet doesn’t seem to tire. He has the full range of skills and can make Test rugby look easy, yet it very definitely is nothing of the kind.
Replacements:
Wales 7 v 7 Ireland
Wales have the breakdown magic of Tommy Reffell in reserve, particularly handy against a team that thrives on fast possession, while there’s maturity and know-how behind in the shape of Rhys Webb, Owen Williams and Alex Cuthbert. Rhys Carre and Dillon Lewis will add second-half zap around the field, with Scott Baldwin a reliable option at hooker and Dafydd Jenkins a young lock who’s developing with each game.
Countering that, Ireland will see Conan and Iain Henderson as potential strike weapons up front, while Conor Murray and Ross Byrne are polished and calm half-backs and Bundee Aki could be a handful late on.
TOTALS
Wales 118
Ireland 122
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