“Good job it wasn’t a strong New Zealand side,” noted one Welsh supporter to his mate on Westgate Street on Saturday evening.
Said in jest, obviously. There again, we had been told these 2022 All Blacks were a non-vintage crop — they had lost six of their previous 12 matches arriving in Cardiff and even the vibe from the other side of the world was that they were vulnerable.
But they destroyed Wayne Pivac’s team, running in eight tries and showing a clinical edge the hosts could only dream of.
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It was the first game of the campaign and Wales are traditionally slow starters, but the scale of the setback will be concerning for Pivac.
The Wales head coach’s challenges are now many and varied. How does he go about resolving them just a year out from the World Cup?
The selection options
Let’s kick off with a sobering thought. The side that faced New Zealand wasn’t far from Wales’ strongest line-up.
Who is there to come back into the team? Dan Biggar, Josh Adams and Liam Williams. There are not many others.
Biggar and Williams, of course, are off limits for the November Tests because of injuries, while a hand injury left Adams sidelined for the date with New Zealand — and, anyway, Rio Dyer played well on his debut.
Maybe there could be a tweak in the back row to bring in Dan Lydiate, and it would never hurt to have the physical presence of Ross Moriarty in the matchday 23 in much the same way as it wouldn’t hurt to have the combative Josh Navidi in the set-up when fit.
But the point is there are not an abundance of alterations that would dramatically improve matters. The side that Pivac picked to face New Zealand was largely greeted positively.
Wales struggled to cope with the All Blacks’ physicality and were not in the same league when it came to turning approach work into tries. Every time the tourists visited the home 22 they seemed to come away with points. By contrast, Wales were blunt in the red zone and failed to convert many of their chances, occasionally because of a lack of composure.
The Welsh forward who is most adept at turning opportunities into points is Morgan Morris — “he reminds me of Sam Simmonds at Exeter,” Ospreys head coach Toby Booth is on record as saying — but he is unproven at Test level and Wales seem in no hurry to pick him, anyway, possibly because they feel he isn’t big enough.
But there is a shortage of dynamic forwards in Wales, players who can surge through opposition tackles and also pass and stop opponents and have what Pivac calls ‘repeatability’ — the ability to follow up one telling moment with another, then another, then another again.
On Saturday, no-one could fault Taulupe Faletau, Justin Tipuric and Ken Owens in the repeatability stakes. Tipuric did uncharacteristically miss one hit early on, but overall he played his socks off, with the same applying to Faletau and Owens.
Wales, though, need more from others. And they’ll need more if they are to improve generally up front.
Front five issues
Ken Owens aside, Pivac’s team were a long way second best in the front five on the day.
The All Blacks had a tight-head prop, Tyrel Lomax, who made more metres with ball in hand (19) than any Welsh forward bar Taulupe Faletau, while they brought on a hooker in Samisoni Taukei’aho who positively gobbled up ground as he went about his work.
According to one draft of statistics, two of Wales’ starting front-five forwards didn’t make any metres with their runs, while a third made just two metres. Will Rowlands put his hand up for work but kept crashing into brick walls.
New Zealand also held the upper hand at the scrums, with their props exerting pressure. Nor could Wales’ bench make much of an impression in the go-forward stakes.
What of Tendai ‘The Beast’ Mtawarira’s contention that Alun Wyn Jones should now retire, the South African's thoughts made available to the world via the medium of Twitter? You can read more of The Beast's thoughts here.
The ex-prop is entitled to his opinion as much as anyone else. But Jones wasn’t the reason why Wales lost against New Zealand, nor was he the worst Welsh front five forward on display.
Ball-carrying has never truly been his game, but he still put in 10 tackles in 40 minutes, defended mauls and cleared out at rucks. In a losing cause, with the tide flowing strongly the other way, it wasn't a bad effort and experience is always to be valued.
Presumably, he’ll know himself when it’s time to call it a day, without having to call on Mtawarira for career advice.
Let’s see how the rest of the campaign goes.
There is promise in the pipeline in the shape of Christ Tshiunza. He already looks a strong line-out option and seems a player with dynamism in his DNA.
Maybe further down the line Dafydd Jenkins of Exeter Chiefs could feature in the picture to add further depth at lock.
But in the short term, for the rest of this series, Wales are not overly full of credible front-five options, short of promoting the likes of Tshiunza and Nicky Smith.
Play at pace
It’s long been an issue for Welsh rugby, even at regional level. While others are able to get the ball away at lightning speed and so expose opposition defences, Welsh teams often seem ponderous in comparison.
It was the case at times again on Saturday, maybe because Wales weren’t winning the collisions. It meant home attacks were frequently predictable, with the opposition having time to organise their rearguard.
By contrast the All Blacks operated in a higher gear, helped by the ability of Aaron Smith to play at tempo and by his forwards being able to generate quick ball.
It’s not exclusively a national squad problem, with a number of regions looking blunt in attack as well.
New Zealand took their chances and largely kept their boot on Wales’ throat, scoring two tries in the first quarter, one in the second, two in the third and three in the fourth. By the end, it was more than a bit gruesome.
Biggar missed
The old adage suggests a player’s worth can truly be gauged by how much he is missed when he’s not around.
I believe Wales missed Dan Biggar a lot on Saturday. I feel they missed his drive, his will to win, his presence, his influence on others and his all-round game.
A year earlier Pivac’s side were blitzed by the All Blacks with Biggar off limits again.
It’s unlikely Wales would have won on Saturday if they’d had Barry John in the starting line-up with either Phil Bennett or Jonathan Davies on the bench, with New Zealand dominant in too many areas.
But for me Biggar does make a difference. And just maybe, had he been on duty the scoreline may not have been so hideous.
I guess we'll never know.
What's happened to the Shaun Edwards inspired defence
Another area of concern.
Twenty-four tackles missed, some of them costing tries: Shaun Edwards wouldn't have put up with it.
Wales teams used to be synonymous with uncompromising tackling but over their last two games against New Zealand they have let in 15 tries.
And to think people were shocked when the All Blacks ran in four touchdowns against Wales in the WRU's centenary match in 1980. By modern standards, that 23-3 setback, which prompted a major inquest at the time, would have been classed as a competitive game.
The problem Wales haven't fixed over a decade
Leigh Halfpenny’s injury meant Wales had to start with a non-specialist full-back in Gareth Anscombe.
It was a shame for Anscombe, who would have wanted to show what he could do at fly-half.
But Wales have been walking a tightrope at No. 15 for too long, having failed to widen their options over the past decade. Liam Williams and Halfpenny have been superb servants but where are their successors? Anscombe having to move from fly-half to cover the No. 15 row highlighted the problem yet again.
Maybe Williams will be back for the Six Nations and Halfpenny might be able to play a part in this campaign.
But Pivac needs to give proper thought to trying to develop another No. 15 or two.
A question of balance
Hindsight is always cleverer than foresight.
When Wayne Pivac picked two opensides in his back row to face New Zealand few demurred, buying the coach’s idea that the Kiwis would play the game at pace and Wales needed a rapid back row to cope.
The visitors certainly did play with pace and skill, but they also brought physicality to the table and won the collisions.
Tommy Reffell is an excellent young player who is going to play a lot more Test rugby but he had a quiet game against New Zealand. Justin Tipuric is first and foremost an openside and Wales needed to complement him with a destructive and big-hitting force at six, to knock ball-carriers back behind the gain-line.
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Maybe a player like Dan Lydiate would give them better balance in the back row. Picking him worked for Wales in South Africa and could have served Wales well against New Zealand.
Going forward, it would be a surprise if he didn’t come back into the picture.
Or does Pivac opt for Tshiunza at six?
A bold call it would be, but at some stage the youngster is going to be a starter.
The few plus points
Most have already touched on — Faletau, Owens, Tipuric, Nick Tompkins, Rio Dyer, George North, in that order.
Not enough.
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