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Wales Online
Sport
Ben James

Wales can still win the Six Nations if precise sequence of results goes their way

Defeat to England at Twickenham all but ended Wales' hopes of retaining their Six Nations title.

Or so we thought.

However, it's not completely over just yet. Not quite.

With two rounds of fixtures left to play, there is the slightest sliver of mathematical hope that Wayne Pivac's side can still retain their crown.

But, it would require such a swing in form and points difference, even Tom Cruise (aka Ethan Hunt) would probably just throw in the towel now.

Looking at the table as things stand, France sit top with 14 points and a decent points difference, with Ireland and England behind on 11 and 10 points respectively.

Below them, sit Scotland and Wales on five points each.

The highest points total Wales can reach is 15 - meaning that the three front-runners effectively need to see their momentum ground to an immediate halt if Wales are to stand any chance of an unlikely tournament victory.

Starting with the next round of fixtures, the results which would serve Wales best would be a bonus-point victory over France, with the French coming away from Cardiff with no losing bonus point of their own.

Elsewhere, Ireland would need to beat England at Twickenham, with neither side grabbing a bonus point.

And then in the other game of round four, the likelihood is that Scotland will win away against Italy, although Gregor Townsend's side missing out on a bonus point, however unlikely, would be ideal for Wales.

Were those results to materialise, the table would read as follows heading into the final round: Ireland would sit top with 15 points, with France in second place on 14. England and Wales would then be nestled behind on 10 each, with Scotland further back on nine points.

In the final round, Wales need to beat Italy with a bonus point and rack up quite a score as points difference is currently not on their side. But thrashing Italy at home is certainly on the cards. Wales have done it before.

So, if Wales do their bit with back-to back-wins, what needs to happen next?

If Scotland failed to get a bonus point against Italy, then they could conceivably get one against Ireland and pose no threat to Wales. That might seem a little bizarre to suggest that Scotland could score four or more tries against Ireland, but not Italy.

But for the purposes of this permutation, Ireland need to concede points somewhere if Wales are to catch Andy Farrell's side. There is currently a 90-point difference between the two sides. That's quite a swing, but Wales thrashing Italy would bring it down substantially.

In the other match of Super Saturday, Wales would need England to beat France in Paris with no bonus points for either side.

Were all that to happen, then Wales and Ireland would each sit on 15 points at the top of the table, with France, England and Scotland just behind on 14.

The title would come down to points difference, which is where this scenario goes from unlikely to unprecedented. It's simply not happened before.

However, technically Wales do still have a mathematical chance of winning the title.

We've outlined how, but maybe don't go getting the bunting out just yet. Although, as we have seen time and again down the decades, sport does have a bizarre knack of throwing up the unexpected.

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