The withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso – who have formed their own Alliance of Sahel States – from West African bloc Ecowas is set to take effect on 29 January, with security experts and members of the diaspora voicing concern over what lies ahead.
On Saturday, 11 January on Paris's Place de la République, dozens of people were protesting against the decision to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), announced last year by Bamako, Niamey and Ouagadougou.
The group is made up of members of the diaspora from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, and exiled political opponents.
Boubacar Mintou Koné – a member of the Malian political opposition in exile, from the Front malien patriotique pour le salut ("Malian Patriotic Front for Salvation") – told RFI: "This withdrawal from Ecowas, currently under way, has been carried out without the necessary consultation of all the nation’s active forces and without a referendum to ask the entire Malian people whether or not we should remain in Ecowas."
He supports the call for a return to constitutional order and the transfer of power from the military junta – which seized power in 2021, in what was the country's third coup d'état in 10 years – to democratically elected institutions.
'Freedom of expression is being trampled'
Protesters from Niger and the north of Mali also denounced the juntas' incompetence in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, as well as their ties with Russia.
"Russia is only there to exploit resources, by taking advantage of insecurity," one protester from northern Mali said. "We also condemn and regret the inaction of the international community, which does nothing to try to alleviate the suffering of the people."
Blinken tours West Africa offering US support to offset Russian influence in Sahel
Idrissa, a Nigerien living in Normandy, north-west France, travelled to the capital for the occasion. "Freedom of expression is being trampled on in the Sahel," he told RFI. "Anyone who tries to speak out risks ending up in prison, whereas here in France we have the opportunity to voice our discontent."
However, exiled Malian opposition figure Ismaël Sakho, who is president of the African Social Democratic Party, believes that even protesting in France is risky for members of the diaspora, as it could see their relatives back home threatened. But he says it remains a necessary evil.
"There needs to be leaders who dare, and we dare," he told RFI. "We are not afraid because we want to remain part of a community that benefits us more."
The protesters plan to assemble in Paris again soon, saying this first demonstration was a trial run.
Ecowas' future in jeopardy after Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso leave group
Security threat
The withdrawal of the three countries from Ecowas poses major issues in terms of population circulation, trade and security.
Bakary Sambe is the regional director of the Dakar-based Timbuktu Institute, a think tank specialising in security and conflict resolution, who works on integration issues in West Africa.
"In itself, the creation of the Sahel States Alliance through the Liptako Gourma Charter presaged a weakening of Ecowas and the tacit disappearance of the G5 Sahel, which was a key player in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel and West Africa in general," he wrote on the institute's site.
For Sambe, the withdrawal risks the fragmentation of regional counter-terrorism efforts, and could have a negative impact on the African Union's efforts in terms of security and cooperation.
"Groups such as Islamic State and al-Qaeda are committed to the establishment of these states, denouncing democratic governance," according to Oluwole Ojewale, research fellow at the Obafemi Awolowo University in Nigeria, and regional coordinator at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa).
He told The Conversation: "Their influence and operational model are on the rise. They are radicalising the population, heightening sectarian strife and aggravating the difficulties of already volatile regions. Operating in parts of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Chad, these groups aspire to form a jihadist caliphate in the Sahel region."
