Political analysts say they are not concerned about a sense of voter apathy in the so-called safe city of the Gold Coast ahead of the 2022 federal election.
Every Gold Coast electorate — Moncrieff, McPherson, Fadden, Wright, and Forde — is held by the Liberal National Party by margins of more than 8 per cent.
Resident Jonathan Pain lives in McPherson and said he wished it was a marginal seat.
"No matter where I turn on the Gold Coast it's a Liberal safe seat," he said.
Do safe seats create voter apathy?
One of the lowest voter turnouts in Australia at the last federal election was in the seat of Moncrieff — the safest Gold Coast seat held by the LNP with a margin of 15.45 per cent.
Only 88.2 per cent of Moncrieff constituents voted — below the national average of 91.89 per cent.
But analysts predict apathetic voters will not influence the outcome of the 2022 election.
The Australian Election Study, led by ANU Professor Ian McAllister, has surveyed voters after every election since 1987.
Due to compulsory voting, he said a reduced voter turnout, like that in Moncrieff, would not impact the result of the seat.
"People, really, in federal elections are looking at the national contest and they're looking at the national political leaders," he said.
Professor McAllister said only 10 per cent of voters cited local issues as their reason for voting for a particular candidate.
Voter apathy was more of a concern in countries without compulsory voting, he said.
"What we generally find in systems that have voluntary voting, if a seat is safe, people are less likely to turn out to vote," he said.
Not safe in the long term?
ANU lecturer and expert in political advertising Andrew Hughes said this election could be different.
He believed even Gold Coast seats could become marginal within the space of two to three elections and used the Northern New South Wales seat of Richmond, currently held by the ALP, as an example.
"That is a very tightly contested seat because of the way it's changed in demographics and profile over recent times, yet it was seen as National Party heartland," he said.
"There's a danger in assuming that seats, which are currently safe, might be so long term."
Would take 'implosion' to unseat incumbents
Griffith University political analyst Paul Williams said he was not expecting Gold Coast electorates to change hands this election.
"It would take an extraordinary implosion of the LNP in Queensland," he said.
"They are just plainly safe seats."
Moncrieff was won on the primary vote at the last election, but Dr Williams predicted the Gold Coast seats would be pushed to preferences in 2022.
"So there'll be decent swings against the LNP in these seats, but nowhere near enough for them to be lost," he said.
