When a host of Hollywood A-listers arrived at the Academy Awards in 2003, their mode of transport turned as many heads as any of the outfits on display.
The likes of Cameron Diaz, Harrison Ford and Susan Sarandon were chauffeured to the event in what was then seen as a symbol of environmental virtue and innovation — Toyota's electric-petrol hybrid Prius.
But almost 20 years since that event, Toyota no longer has the the edge in the great race to decarbonise the world's transport fleet.
If anything, the view among industry experts is that Toyota has slipped back in the pack — way, way back.
Overtaking it are competitors shunning the notion that a hybrid "bridge" is needed between the old world of internal combustion engines and the new one of purely electric vehicles, or EVs.
This week, Swedish manufacturer Volvo turned up the pressure on the likes of Toyota another notch by announcing it would stop selling petrol-powered cars in Australia within four years.
Instead, Volvo would only supply "fully electric" cars by 2026 – four years ahead of a similar, global commitment.
"I personally don't think there's a future for combustion engines," Volvo's Australian managing director, Stephen Connor, said on Tuesday.
"If we're true to our form and we want to make the world a safer place for our children and our children's children, then we can't keep selling old technology that's outdated and also keeps pumping out lots of CO2."
Global EV sales accelerating
The announcement by Volvo, which is backed by private Chinese car company Geely, comes amid intense competition between automakers for the future of the industry.
While the total proportion of global car sales made up by EVs is relatively modest, it's a share that's rapidly growing.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) – a club comprising most of the world's rich countries – sales of EVs in 2021 doubled compared with the previous year to 6.6 million.
This amounted to almost 10 per cent of global car sales for the period.
By comparison, 120,000 EVs were sold worldwide in 2012.
It's a rate of growth that's expected to maintain momentum amid the broader push by governments and industry to wean economies off fossil fuels.
Indeed, the IEA notes that two million EVs were sold in the first quarter of 2022 alone — a 75 per cent increase on the same period last year.
Driving much of the uptake has been aggressive action by governments across the world, from the US to Europe and China.
Some countries such as the UK have gone as far as to announce bans on the sale of petrol and diesel cars by next decade.
A more common example of those efforts has been the imposition of fuel efficiency standards.
Under such measures, automakers are required to ensure the models they sell over a year – on average – meet minimum quality and efficiency benchmarks.
Almost invariably, EVs which produce few or no emissions are the easiest way to help meet any target.
Tougher fuel standards flagged
Australia is one of just two developed economies without fuel efficiency standards, the other being Russia.
But that could soon change — federal Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has signalled a willingness to toughen up Australia's policies.
"What we're saying is now is the time to have a serious discussion about whether Australia should have fuel efficiency standards and how we should have them," Mr Bowen said at the time.
A possible shift by the Commonwealth has spurred expectations of a big jump in the take-up of EVs in Australia, where sales have lagged behind many other wealthy countries.
Despite increasing by 65 per cent so far this year compared with 2021, EVs still only represented 3.4 per cent of all new cars sold in Australia, the Electric Vehicle Council found in a recent report.
Will Edmonds, an analyst from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, has noted Australia's rate of EV adoption is likely to stay in the slow lane so long as there's an absence of fuel emissions curbs.
In the meantime, Mr Edmonds said Australia risked becoming a "dumping ground" for the least efficient petrol-powered cars automakers were unable to sell overseas.
"We're already feeling the effects of not having a fuel emissions standard now," Mr Edmonds said at the time.
"Europe, China, the US… their fuel emission standards ratchet up over time, meaning there's increasing pressure on automakers to send vehicles there.
"If Australia doesn't have that fuel emissions standard, it risks falling even more behind."
Is the race with hybrids over?
Volvo's break for cover suggests some manufacturers believe it's only a matter of time before Australia joins the rest of the world in cracking down on fuel emissions.
Such a change should notionally have some advantages for automakers selling hybrid models.
After all, hybrids emit about half as much carbon as a conventional petrol car for every kilometre travelled and their efficiency means they often have ranges in excess of 1,000km for a tank of fuel.
This week the industry leader in hybrid development, Toyota, was keen to stress the value of not having all its eggs in one basket.
"Toyota is not limited to a single technical solution," a Toyota spokeswoman said.
"We are committed to providing our customers with a diverse range of vehicles and technologies that will help them on their journey to zero tailpipe emissions based on their individual motoring circumstances, ensuring no-one is left behind."
But others aren't so sure.
Sandra Roling, the head of transport at Climate Group, recently told the Financial Times that Japan was putting itself at a "serious disadvantage" by fixating on hybrids, while the giant Fitch ratings agency said Toyota in particular risked losing investor confidence by failing to heed the market's EV calls.
By declaring its hand, Volvo has suggested it's all in on electric cars and anything else on the path to clean vehicles is a dead end.
