Bus services in Greater Manchester could be cut when emergency Covid funding runs out at the end of March, campaigners have warned.
Declining passenger numbers, a driver shortage and fears the industry could fall off a financial cliff, risk paving the way to major problems for passengers in 2022.
Although starting to improve, passenger numbers are still around 20 per cent of pre-covid levels, while staff absence and a general shortage of drivers nationwide are also affecting services.
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Bus operators and Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM) have received more than £100m from the Government in emergency support since the pandemic began.
In a report presented to GMCA in October, it shows that TfGM has passed on an average of £3m a month to operators using funds provided by the Department for Transport.
However, that funding expires in April, and transport leaders here have confirmed to the Manchester Evening News that there is 'uncertainty' over whether future cash will be made available.
Potentially most at risk are those services which, because bus operators cannot make a profit on them, are subsidised by by the public purse, through TfGM. They often serve routes through isolated communities, hospitals, or run outside peak hours.
Transport bosses already have to make difficult decisions throughout the year on which services they can afford to subsidise, but the loss of emergency funding could place many more in jeopardy.
A bus committee report due to be discussed on Friday warns of ‘considerable risk around future income (including government support) and cost.
John Moorhouse, secretary of regional watchdog TravelWatch NorthWest, said they do fear a cut-back in services for passengers.
He said: "Our concern is it's going to take a while for people to get fully back to using trams and buses and we don't want to see any service cuts in the meantime which will be bad news for passengers."
Referring to doubts that Boris’ £3bn Bus Back Better scheme which had promised lower fares and better services, will come to fruition, he said there were fears the government would also ‘row back’ on regional support.
He added: "I'm not sure the government will be giving more funding as they seem to be rowing back in other parts of the region on other bus scheme funding.
"The whole situation is rather worrying that we are going to find the bus industry starved of investment and the consequences of that could be worsening and reduction of services for passengers.
"We'll just have to wait and see."
Longer-term, potential loss of bus investment in the region will also concern Andy Burnham, who’s described lowering fares as a ‘burning priority’ after signing off on a ‘game-changing’ franchising model earlier this year which will bring buses back under public control.
To be rolled out from 2023, the move should see bus passengers enjoy a ‘seamless’ system where fares, routes and timetables are managed by local authorities instead of private operators.
More than half of the £135m 'transition' costs are covered through Greater Manchester's devolution agreement - with the rest coming from the mayoral precept and one-off funding from councils.
However, the amount of cash the city region will get for running bus services is yet to be confirmed by ministers.
Mr Burnham previously estimated that an ongoing subsidy of between £75m and £100m would be needed from the government in order to ensure lower fares.
Driver shortages could also prove to be a hurdle.
About 6,700 bus drivers are needed nationwide, with roughly 10pc of positions vacant, according to the bus industry group, the Confederation of Passenger Transport (CPT).
This, according to a Greater Manchester Bus Commitee Report report from October, has been exacerbated by Department for Transport efforts to recruit HGV drivers, which has drawn staff away from the bus industry.
Bus operators have now appealed to the Government to help them to recruit drivers back on to the buses.
A Transport for Greater Manchester spokesman said: “TfGM is aware of the uncertainty in respect of future funding and is currently engaging with local bus operators as to potential impacts on services, although it’s important to stress that there are no clear proposals as yet.
“TfGM is also seeking further info from DfT as to future funding both individually and collectively with other authorities."
Stagecoach referred the Manchester Evening News to the Confederation of Passenger Transport, who said: “Buses are vital to the Government’s drive towards net zero and ensuring that as we exit the pandemic people can travel sustainably.
“Operators have plans with local authorities to improve bus services, as envisaged by the National Bus Strategy, but because of ongoing uncertainty of Covid-19 passenger numbers remain below where they were before the pandemic. To ensure that we deliver the bold vision we all have for bus services it is vital that, as we wait for these new plans come online later this year, we are not seeing areas across the county going backwards in their bus provision.”
A Department for Transport spokesman said: "“We have provided unprecedented support for transport in Greater Manchester during the pandemic, including our £1.5bn Coronavirus Bus Service Support Grant, and ongoing £226.5m Bus Recovery Grant. The Metrolink, meanwhile, has had over £120m in support.
“We continue working with the bus and light rail sectors to understand the potential challenges once funding ends."
