Nvidia helped light a fire under power generation and nuclear plays early Wednesday, but the reaction was fleeting, Vistra went from the top S&P 500 gainer in pre-market action to one of the biggest losers in the regular session, despite an earnings beat.
GE Vernova, NRG Energy and Constellation Energy saw similar action in a reminder to investors that the market backdrop has become tricky and they should act accordingly.
Nvidia
Nuclear stocks are trying to reenergize after a scare that Chinese startup DeepSeek's low-cost methods for developing AI models could dampen the projected growth of power demand. However, Nvidia provided a pep talk for the group, as CEO Jensen Huang said in an earnings statement that "AI is advancing at light speed as agentic AI and physical AI set the stage for the next wave of AI to revolutionize the largest industries."
"No technology has ever had the opportunity to address a larger part of the world's GDP than AI," Huang elaborated on the earnings call. "No software tool ever has. And so, this is now a software tool that can address a much larger part of the world's GDP more than any time in history."
"And when you take a step back and look at it from that perspective, we're really just in the beginning.
Nvidia reported that data center revenue surged 93% from a year ago and 16% from fiscal Q3 to $35.6 billion, topping estimates.
Vistra Earnings Results
CEO Jim Burke said in a statement that Vistra "is well-positioned to serve customer needs and grow with the overall electrification trends in our industry." He highlighted Vistra's acquisition of three nuclear sites in 2024, elevating the company's assets to the "second-largest competitive nuclear fleet in the country."
Results: Vistra reported 106% growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to $1.93 billion, easily topping the consensus forecast of $1.38 billion, according to FactSet.
Revenue grew 31% to $4.04 billion, FactSet said. Full year revenue of $17.22 billion topped estimates of $17.15 billion.
Outlook: Vistra reaffirmed its prior outlook for adjusted EBITDA of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion, with the midpoint slightly below estimates of $5.846 billion. Vistra also offered an early look at 2026 adjusted EBITDA, saying it anticipates the midpoint of the outlook will be more than $6 billion.
Utility, Nuclear Stock Catalysts
This week Oklo announced participation in a federal program that will help fund testing of its Aurora small modular reactor technology.
Meanwhile, NRG joined with GE Vernova in a venture involving four new natural gas power plants to meet the demand for computing power, with the first set to be in operation by 2029.
Vistra stock tumbled 8.5%, after rising more than 5% in pre-market action, as it tries to regain its 50-day moving average.
CEG fell 5.3%, while NRG lost 4%. NRG had surged 10.6% on Wednesday, lifting it out of buy range, following its earnings and partnership news with GE Vernova. GEV is off 0.8% after rising early.
Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.
