Around half a dozen Victorian lower house seats remain too close to call, as a tight count in Melbourne's north could put an independent challenger in striking distance of a seat in Labor's heartland.
The lower house seat of Preston, which also takes in the suburb of Reservoir, was previously held by former minister Robin Scott and has been in Labor hands since 1945.
The preference count provided by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) presents a contest between Labor's Nathan Lambert and Greens candidate Patchouli Paterson — which would see Labor win.
But ABC election analyst Antony Green said independent candidate and City of Darebin councillor Gaetano Greco had overtaken the Greens on counting since Saturday night.
He said it meant there was an outside chance Mr Greco could reach second place in the contest.
"The published Green and Socialist how-to-votes recommend preferences to Mr Greco, and voters following the how-to-votes should push him ahead of Liberal candidate Amanda Paliouras," Green said.
"The Liberal how-to-vote also recommended preferences for Mr Greco which will allow him to dramatically narrow Labor's lead."
But Green said Mr Greco would need to secure 75 per cent of preferences from all other candidates in order to defeat Labor.
"That is an unusually high flow to achieve for a candidate who polled less than 15 per cent on first preferences," Green said.
Mr Greco, who campaigned against a controversial redevelopment of Preston Market, said it now appeared the race would be "very, very close".
"It's going to go down to actually counting the last postal votes that come in because the Labor [primary] vote has sunk really low — from 52 per cent in the 2018 election down to 38 per cent," he said.
Mr Greco said he believed Labor had taken the "super safe" Labor seat for granted and some votes were swayed on local issues.
"I've been a former mayor and a councillor, very active in the community, I think Labor has misread the seat of Preston," he said.
On Sunday night, Labor's Mr Lambert, a former assistant secretary to the party, said the outcome remained "uncertain".
"I think the independent candidate, Gaetano Greco, will finish second after the distribution of preferences — and possibly first," Mr Lambert said in a post on social media.
"We won't know until all the postal votes are received and a full distribution of preferences is completed."
Labor remains ahead in Northcote
The marginal seat of Northcote sits just south of Preston and was visited three times by Premier Daniel Andrews during the campaign as sitting MP Kat Theophanous fought off the Greens.
On Monday, Ms Theophanous held a slender lead over Greens challenger Campbell Gome.
The party appeared at risk of losing the seat on Saturday night, before a swag of pre-poll and postal votes bolstered Ms Theophanous's position.
Labor also remained ahead in tight counts across Bass, Hastings and Pakenham.
The Liberal Party held a slight lead in Hawthorn and Mornington, where it is facing independent challengers.
The VEC said it would focus on counting postal votes on Monday, with the bulk of mail votes expected to arrive by Tuesday.
"We are hoping by the end of the week we'll have all of the districts declared," the VEC's Sue Lang said.
On Monday, Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan inspected early works for the Suburban Rail Loop, as the Andrews government spruiked its agenda for a third term of majority government.
On the other side of politics, Liberal MPs have begun discussing who should become the party's next leader, while the Nationals have reflected on the future of the Coalition partnership.
'Nervous' fortnight wait for some upper house MPs
Candidates across Victoria's upper house will face a longer wait, with the VEC expecting the count will be finalised by December 13.
A record number of candidates contested the Victorian election, including several new miro-parties attempting to harness COVID-19 pandemic frustration.
Reason Party leader Fiona Patten, who is running for re-election to a seat in the Northern Metropolitan region, said it appeared she would end up in a contest with former minister Adem Somyurek, who is running for the socially conservative Democratic Labour Party.
"On current numbers, I have a slight edge to retain the seat off a strong flow of preferences from other progressive parties," Ms Patten said.
"It will likely come down to below-the-line votes, which I'm glad to say is strong in Northern Metro, and likely favours us."
She said it would remain a "nervous wait" until December 13 and invited supporters to send "chocolate and prayers" over "thoughts and prayers".
Mr Somyurek said in a social media post on Monday afternoon there were "many swings and roundabouts ahead" but he was "comfortable with where I am at".
