Moving transport from the government department for economy and transport to that of climate change was a clear indication that radical changes in transport roads policy and capital scheme evaluation criteria would follow.
In the 1960s determining whether a road should be built used the CoBA methodology. This compared costs with the benefits achieved through journey time savings, vehicle operating cost savings and accident cost savings (to the NHS). These ‘generalised’ costs considered, in monetary terms, goods and people movement efficiency; paralleling a business process to determine maximum returns (economic benefits/profit)
By the 1980s road building/increasing car usage impacts on noise, air quality, visual intrusion and wildlife were being considered. However there was no monetary value (despite this columnist’s 1982 post-graduate thesis on monetarising these) and so were given secondary importance in highway capital evaluation.
From the mid-1990s it was realised that a new approach was needed. The UK Department for Transport (DfT five case business Model currently forms the basis of transport scheme evaluation in Wales (called WelTAG – the Welsh Transport Assessment and Guidance). The cases are:
- Strategic – is there a strategic transport basis for building this road or railway.
- Economic – a socioeconomic appraisal of costs and benefits; demand forecasts.
- Financial – whole life costs of the scheme; affordability for government or partners.
- Commercial – viability of procurement options
- Management – is the scheme deliverable through planning, risk, logistics.
Last year DfT made the strategic case predominant over the economic case which was a significant step forward in England.
The Welsh Government’s Roads Review recommended new evaluation criteria so any road scheme should:
- Minimise carbon emissions in construction (and reduce noise and pollution impacts on residents adjacent to the scheme.
- Not lead to higher vehicle speeds so increasing emissions.
- Not increase capacity for cars.
- Not adversely affect ecologically valuable sites.
- Provide better access to development sites (for investment and jobs).
- Reduce road casualties.
Moving the evaluation emphasis to climate change should not discourage inward investment so long as the access criterion gives the road/rail capacity required when considering Wales as a location for their factories, warehouses or offices.
There is no suggestion in the Roads Review that all road building should end. Most of the cancelled schemes are located in areas where public transport can effectively take cars off the roads. This provides more capacity for freight transport, and for rural/urban shadow areas where the traveller critical mass is insufficient to provide an acceptable frequency and fare/revenue support level.
The decision on travelling by car or public transport lies of course with the traveller. Some will continue to use the car. However, achieving the government’s target of 45% of journeys by sustainable modes by 2040 means a significant reduction in road congestion enabling free flowing traffic which will contribute to the climate change objectives. To do so train and bus provision has to be greatly improved in south east Wales, along the M4, A470 and A55 corridors, in the Swansea and Wrecsam urban areas and on local town bus services.
This is the multi-modal programme to which the report refers but there is a long way to go. Electrification of the rail network and new train services for Cardiff and Newport will provide more frequent, reliable services by 2024 at an infrastructure cost of over £800m This will tes the modal shift theory that improved public transport reduces traffic flows, in this case on the M4 and A470 from 2025.
Bus reliability is hindered by the lack of priority schemes and an infrequent operation in the evenings and at weekends. This acts against modal change to buses throughout Wales and particularly so in rural areas If the climate change objectives set out in the Roads Review are to succeed, considerably more public transport and active travel investment and revenue support is immediately required from Welsh Government.
A low-cost rail scheme (2018 estimate £20m) expected to attract traffic from the M4 via a station adjacent to junction 46 could contribute to the climate change objectives above and improve access between west Wales and Cardiff. Using the Swansea District Line reduces journey times by up to 22 minutes for that journey. Introducing this would test the government’s commitment and financial ability to build such small-scale schemes.
The big challenge however is getting drivers out of their cars . That is not an easy task and Welsh Government will have to persevere over many years to achieve that shift.
- Professor Stuart Cole, CBE, is Emeritus Professor of Transport (Economics and Policy), University of South Wales.
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