Donald Trump had yet to get his feet under the Oval Office desk when he held his first meeting with a foreign leader in late 2016. Shinzo Abe, then Japan’s prime minister, arrived at Trump Tower in November that year bearing a gift of a gold-plated golf club and harbouring a determination to get the Japan-US relationship under Trump off to the best possible start.
The success, or otherwise, of Abe’s charm offensive had potentially serious repercussions. During the election campaign, Trump had suggested he would withdraw US troops from Japan, contingent on Tokyo’s willingness to make a bigger financial contribution to their countries’ postwar alliance.
The gambit worked. During Trump’s five-nation visit to Asia in late 2017, he and Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, bonded over a round of golf – a sport for which the Japanese leader had apparently developed a sudden passion – and gourmet hamburgers.
For the remainder of Trump’s term, Abe supported the US administration with a fervour that eluded many of his contemporaries. US troops remained in Japan, and the bilateral security treaty – the cornerstone of Japan’s postwar foreign policy – survived unscathed.
As he prepares to fly to Washington on a three-day visit, all eyes are on whether Japan’s current leader, Shigeru Ishiba, will be able to re-create Abe’s personal rapport with Trump, although golf diplomacy is unlikely to play a part for the cigarette-smoking plastic-modelling enthusiast.
When they sign a joint statement in Washington after their talks on Friday, Japan will be looking for familiar guarantees from Trump: that the US will defend Japan, including in any conflict with China over the disputed Senkaku islands, a commitment to stability in the Taiwan strait, and continued backing for the region’s opposition to North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.
And while Trump’s threats to impose tariffs have so far targeted Mexico, Canada and China, Ishiba will be aware that Japan – which has a $56bn trade surplus with the US – could also be sucked into a trade war.
“We have a lot of topics to discuss,” Ishiba told MPs this week. “I hope to set priorities and get results in the limited time we have.”
In return for offering security guarantees Trump will expect reciprocal action from Ishiba, a low-energy, cautious politician unaccustomed to horse-trading with the leader of the world’s biggest economy.
But he will not go to Washington empty-handed. Like his recent predecessors, Ishiba wants to raise defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2027 – a commitment that will almost certainly mean buying US-manufactured military hardware. He will remind Trump that Japan has led foreign direct investment in the US for the past five years and highlight Japanese companies’ record in creating jobs for Americans. He might also outline plans for new Japanese investments, including in a $44bn gas pipeline in Alaska.
That Ishiba will be the second foreign leader, after Benjamin Netanyahu, to meet Trump “says something about Japan’s strategic weight”, said Nicholas Szechenyi, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Japan’s foreign policy has always been ‘America First,’ and if Ishiba can deliver that message eloquently he will establish a foundation for strong alliance ties.”
Szechenyi added: “Will Ishiba succeed? The media will be looking for signs of personal chemistry, and that is important in diplomacy. But the message Ishiba brings is profound, and what might at first appear to be a hastily arranged bilateral meeting could serve as a starting point for shaping the regional balance of power in favour of the US alliance network in Asia during Trump 2.0.”
Tobias Harris, founder and principal at Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory firm, said Ishiba’s trip carries considerable domestic risks, as he attempts to assert control of his scandal-riven, divided Liberal Democratic party [LDP].
“How Ishiba handles his relationship with Trump will draw intense scrutiny and carry immense risks for Ishiba’s standing at home,” Harris said. “If he is overly ingratiating, he will be grilled by lawmakers in parliament.”
Ishiba has also come under pressure over how he will broach the subject of Trump’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization and the Paris climate accord, as well as his administration’s now-paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
“The Japanese media will be watching closely how Trump addresses Ishiba, what his body language looks like, and whether he uses his first name – and if he is unable to receive assurances from Trump on key issues,” Harris added.
“It is a risky meeting for Ishiba. He could face tough questioning at home for not standing up for Japan’s interests, but if he fails to bring home reassurances from Trump or to forge a sufficiently cordial relationship with him, his rivals in the LDP could step up the pressure.”
