Following their 2-1 loss to Arsenal, the situation around Jesse Marsch's Leeds United looks bleak. Everton produced a 2-1 win over Leicester City on Sunday, meaning they leapfrogged the Whites and Burnley into 16th place. They travel to Watford on Wednesday who have the worst home form in the Premier League this season to play their game in hand, which could see Frank Lampard's side take another huge stride towards safety.
That would leave a straight shoot-out between Leeds and Burnley for the final relegation place. And forecasters FiveThirtyEight make Burnley slender favourites to beat the drop over Leeds.
Using a host of different data points and analytics, FiveThirtyEight have deduced that Everton have a 10 per cent chance of going down while Burnley have a 40 per cent chance.
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That leaves Leeds United with a 50 per cent chance, making them their favourites of the three to go down. Leeds sit below the Clarets in the Premier League table by virtue of having a vastly worse goal difference.
The Clarets face off against Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa and Newcastle in their final three games this season. Given that Spurs could still be chasing a top-four finish and Villa have just beaten Burnley 3-1 this weekend, it could come down to the final day of the season against Eddie Howe's Newcastle for them to secure their survival.
Conversely, Leeds play host to Chelsea in midweek before taking on Brighton at Elland Road. They finish the season away at Brentford.
With two games at home, Leeds will have to hope they can channel the atmosphere of Elland Road into something more, similar to how Everton have utilised Goodison Park in recent weeks.
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