Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is presenting himself as the man to save the Ukrainian grain export deal. The United Nations General Assembly saw Erdogan stepping up his efforts to rescue the deal after Moscow pulled out.
The Turkish leader, who has close ties with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, brokered the grain agreement last year with the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.
Analysts say Erdogan, who met with Putin earlier this month, is viewed as the best hope of persuading Putin to return to the deal.
"Russia has two specific conditions for the revival of the grain deal," says Ozgur Unluhisarcakli, head of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund.
"Both are related to relaxing some of the sanctions against Russia ... One is that the Russian Agricultural Bank should be reconnected with the swift payment system. The other that European cargo ships carrying Russian grain should be able to be insured."
Concessions a risk
But Unluhisarcakli warned that granting such concessions would be contentious.
"The United States and Europe will be making calculations with costs and benefits. The benefit is obvious, at the cost of accommodating Russia's demands on, let's say, Ukraine's defence efforts or Russia's war effort."
Erdogan voiced sympathy for Moscow's demands at the recent G20 gathering of world leaders, which added to Ankara's Western allies' growing concern over Erdogan's close ties to Putin.
Those ties will likely complicate the Turkish leader's efforts to persuade US President Joe Biden to make concessions.
"We know the relationship between President Erdogan and President Biden is not excellent," says Mustafa Aydin, president of the International Relations Council in Turkey (UİK-IRCT).
"Obviously Erdogan knows that he cannot convince the United States to move by himself."
Aydin suggests Erdogan will be looking for allies.
"I think he's going to try to bring the United Nations into the picture to convince Biden to make a move towards Russia."
Humanitarian corridor
Ukraine has started exporting grain in the face of Russian threats through what it calls a humanitarian corridor – a route that hugs the coast of Black Sea countries through to Istanbul.
But Kyiv's challenge to Moscow brings the danger of an escalation in the Ukrainian war.
"There is no guarantee that 'accidents' won't happen or that Russia won't intentionally try to block the exports," warns Aydin.
"One suggestion is that NATO's ships come to the Black Sea to protect the shipment of Ukrainian grain. More of NATO's ships on the Black Sea might create even further dangers of threats for security in the region."
With Turkey the gatekeeper to the Black Sea, any NATO naval deployment to protect grain would need Ankara's permission – a decision that would force the country to take sides in the Ukrainian conflict.
For Erdogan, saving the grain deal will not only avert the risk of famine and soaring food prices, it will help silence critics of his ties to Putin.
