The Transportation Security Administration forecast record travel for this year's Thanksgiving Day holidays, but a looming government shutdown could mean long lines and extended wait times and major U.S. airports.
The TSA said it expects to screen around 30 million domestic air passengers over the twelve-day period that ends on November 28, including the largest-ever number of screenings for a single day of 2.9 million on Sunday November 26.
The TSA screened 2.56 million passengers on the Sunday after Thanksgiving in 2022, the most since December of 2019.
“We expect this holiday season to be our busiest ever. In 2023, we have already seen seven of the top 10 busiest travel days in TSA’s history,” said TSA Administrator David Pekoske. “We are ready for the anticipated volumes and are working closely with our airline and airport partners to make sure we are prepared for this busy holiday travel season."
"We will also do our best to maintain wait time standards of under 10 minutes for TSA PreCheck lanes and under 30 minutes for standard screening lanes," he added. "I am grateful for our dedicated employees who continue to remain vigilant and focused on the mission during this holiday travel season and beyond.”
One caveat to the expected surge, however, is that government employees could be sent home on November 18 if Congress is unable to pass either a compromise budget deal or a continuing resolution ahead of the November 17 shutdown deadline.
Newly-elected House Speaker Mike Johnson will present his stopgap bill to Congress on Tuesday, but will need Democratic votes in order to offset resistance from conservative Republican lawmakers who are expected to reject the deal.
The estimated 50,000 TSA employees who operate under the broader umbrella of the Department of Homeland Security are considered essential workers, but they will not be paid in the event of a shutdown and some could stay home as a result.
"In previous shutdowns, this led to significant delays and longer wait times for travelers at airports across the country," the White House warned in late September.
U.S. airlines are also bracing for record post-pandemic volumes, with American Airlines forecasting around 7.8 million travelers between Wednesday November 22 and Sunday November 26. Rivals United Airlines UAL pegs the total at around 5.9 million, with 6.4 million forecast by Delta Air Lines.
The AAA, meanwhile, expects a total of 55.4 million people travelling from Wednesday through Sunday of the Thanksgiving holiday, including around 49 million people taking driving trips.
Some of that increase is likely linked to the pullback in gas prices, which the AAA pegs at a national average of $3.365 per gallon, down around 7.2% from a month ago, and around 11% lower compared to the same period last year.
“For many Americans, Thanksgiving and travel go hand in hand, and this holiday, we expect more people on the roads, skies, and seas compared to 2022,” said senior vice president of travel Paula Twidale.
“Travel demand has been strong all year, and AAA’s Thanksgiving forecast reflects that continued desire to get away and spend time with loved ones.”
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