Donald Trump’s second term as president is highly anticipated by much of the finance and M&A community, with many hopeful that his disposition to business will spur a rise in dealmaking.
But the one thing we know from his last term is that we need to expect the unexpected. His personal views and a desire to advance a political agenda played a far stronger role in the M&A landscape than previous administrations. He used his merger review powers to go after allegedly left-leaning CNN through the challenge of the TimeWarner-AT&T deal, for instance.
It has been a turbulent few years for global M&A, with confidence and positive sentiment rationed amid tricky global macro headwinds. The pandemic, geopolitical uncertainties, and the unravelling of the low-interest rate environment have all contributed to historically muted levels of dealmaking. 2023 was the worst year for M&A in North America in a decade, according to Mergermarket data. While deal volume in North America increased by 9% to $1.7 trillion in 2024, this was still lower than the average for the five years leading up to the pandemic.
M&A resurgence
The stock rallies following Trump’s election victory signalled the market’s response to his policies around corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and leadership changes at key agencies. These have spurred optimism among bankers and financial advisors I speak to, who look forward to an M&A resurgence this year. Many are seeing clients already making inbound M&A inquiries. Though the environment will give many transactions tailwinds to completion, we are now facing an environment where an elite group’s preferences will have far more sway than the antitrust rulebooks stipulate.
The overarching sentiment is that a shift away from the Neo-Brandeisian approach to antitrust enforcement—looking at the broader social impact of deals rather than just consumer welfare—seen under the Biden administration will give corporate boardrooms more confidence to transact, particularly in the larger-ticket arena. But, as we saw in Trump’s first term, his rhetoric around antitrust was far from being purely based on traditional theories of harm, instead wrapped in his personal preferences and industrial agenda.
However, information on his planned appointments to key antitrust agencies have helped charge dealmaker optimism that there will be more predictability around merger review clearances for larger-ticket transactions. Omnicom’s acquisition of Interpublic, which would create the world’s largest advertising agency, will serve as a bellwether for the new Trump administration’s view on antitrust. The resulting national champion in the advertising industry, the companies argue, would operate in a shifting environment that pits them against the likes of Google and Amazon.
So far, indications of Trump’s antitrust agency appointments have been taken as an encouraging sign. His nominee to lead the Justice Department’s antitrust efforts, Gail Slater, is a seasoned antitrust attorney. She has previously served at the FTC and advised JD Vance during Trump's campaign. However, Slater and Vance have praised outgoing FTC Chair Lina Khan—the interventionist progressive darling—for her enforcement approach to Big Tech. The change in administration may not result in the calming of turbulent waters for the tech giants, especially the Magnificent Seven stocks.
The path for mergers writ large may not be clear cut, but there will likely be a shift of focus. With the emergence of antitrust as a populist tool, health care, tech, and other consumer-facing mergers are likely to continue to face tough scrutiny, while national champions in sectors that support Trump’s industrial policy may be waved through. Looking back, PaRRdata shows that during the second half of Trump's first term, antitrust enforcement was as active as it had been under Obama. The new dawn for antitrust for business at large will be a thorn in the side of those who have fallen out of favor with the president-elect. Even leaders in businesses in sectors Trump looks kindly upon admit they have to expect the unexpected.
Overall, dealmakers believe more clarity on antitrust enforcement will help further awaken appetite for mega deals in the U.S. However, many smaller companies are waiting for further indications on how Trump’s tariff plans will impact their businesses before setting out on new acquisition plans.
Cross-border deals
The details on the tariff measures—and what Trump can achieve with a thin congressional majority—will also be watched closely by international companies exporting to the U.S. Trump’s pledge of baseline tariffs on all imports, while potentially an opening gambit for trade concessions amongst America’s partners, signals an appetite for protectionism that will be a departure from his predecessor and the historic status quo. Such expectations are already causing a rise in M&A from firms seeking to equip themselves with U.S. manufacturing capabilities, furthering the reshoring trend the pandemic accelerated.
The threat of these tariffs will create incentives for international businesses that do not have facilities stateside to acquire U.S. firms as a way of ensuring that products carry a “Made in America” label and are produced domestically. Even before Trump’s victory, a wave of global businesses had begun exploring acquisitions of U.S. assets.
April 2024 saw a large cross-border deal in which Italian cabling company Prysmian bought Texas-based Encore Wire, a manufacturer of electrical wire and cables, for $1.1 billion cash. Prysmian—now able to use Encore’s products, which the firm says are “proudly” made in America—has said it will seek to grow its North American presence following the deal. Expect more of the same in strategic sectors and those with global supply chains, such as automobile manufacturing. This will no doubt be a complicated and tricky exercise.
In Asia, the prospect of tariffs of potentially up to 60% on Chinese goods is spurring defensive mergers and acquisitions. Companies operating in China are looking to acquire or merge with companies elsewhere to reduce their exposure to such tariffs. We are already seeing substantial trade flows from China to Southeast Asia and a significant pipeline of M&A and IPOs.
All in all, the next Trump administration is marred by uncertainty. He is notoriously unpredictable, and we will only be able to see the exact details of his tariffs and his administration’s approach to merger enforcement once he is in office. But the expectations of the markets, big corporates, bankers, and investors are that his pro-business policies will kickstart M&A this year.
Read more:
- I’m a Canadian listening to Trump. Let’s talk about ‘the 51st state’
- In Trump 2.0, growing, spending, or squandering an enviable macroeconomic inheritance are all on the table
- The ‘Trump bump’ has survived tariff announcements—but will it survive the good, the bad, and the unknown in his cabinet?
- Trump’s plans to kill EV subsidies signal a new era of climate tech Darwinism
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
