Almost one million migrants have been intercepted by Mexico so far this year, marking a record high as the country ramps up efforts to curb migration toward the United States. These actions have doubled the number of migrant encounters in just a year, according to the Interior Ministry.
Analysts point out that Mexico has already been active in serving as a "buffer" between the U.S. and migrants from Central America, South America, Africa, and Asia, even if President-elect Donald Trump remains critical of Mexico's migration policies, threatening tariffs to pressure the country to further reduce migratory flows.
"Mexico has become essentially the waiting room for migrants originally headed to the U.S.," Luciana Gandini, a migration expert at Mexico's National Autonomous University, told Axios.
Between January and August of this year, Mexican authorities registered about 925,000 encounters with migrants lacking visas or migration permits, more than double the total for 2023, which itself was a record-breaking year.
At the same time, U.S. Border Patrol reported 1.5 million encounters in fiscal year 2024, which ended in September, a 25% drop from the previous year, according to CBP data. Experts attribute this decline, in part, to Mexico's increased enforcement measures, which include turning back migrants at the border with Guatemala and intercepting caravans en route to the U.S.
Much of Mexico's enforcement relies on what Gandini describes as a "chutes and ladders" approach, where migrants are intercepted and bused to southern states for processing. This strategy often disperses migrants, adding logistical, financial, and safety challenges to their journeys.
However, analysts caution that these measures are not a sustainable solution. Carin Zissis of the Wilson Center told the outlet that Mexico's crackdown does little to address the underlying causes of migration, such as political instability, economic hardship, and violence in countries like Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Ecuador. "People have clearly heard about the dangers they face and still make the journey — they remain willing to take that risk," Zissis told the media outlet.
Mexico's efforts could falter if Trump's mass deportation plans lead to large numbers of Mexicans and others being sent back, straining the country's resources. Mexico has increasingly become a key destination for migrants, ranking among the top countries receiving asylum applications globally since 2021, according to the UN Refugee Agency.
Two critical agencies, the National Migration Institute (INM) and the Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance (COMAR), are already under pressure. The INM, responsible for managing migration, faces a 14% budget cut in 2025, reducing its funding to approximately $83 million — less than 1% of the budget allocated to its U.S. counterpart, ICE.
COMAR, which processes asylum claims and operates with just 13 offices nationwide, is similarly underfunded. Despite receiving over 140,000 refugee claims in 2023 — a figure up 18% from the previous year — its 2025 budget has been slashed by 10%, leaving it with just $2.3 million to operate nationwide.
The crisis extends beyond logistics. Criminal groups involved in immigrant smuggling are on the rise; abductions, sexual violence, forced labor, and human trafficking are rampant. And migration experts warn that this renewed hardline stance on immigration could inadvertently empower organized crime. By further restricting already limited legal pathways, Trump's policies could push more migrants toward human traffickers and smugglers.
With an estimated revenue of $4 billion to $12 billion a year, the smuggling of migrants has joined drugs and extortion as the top income stream for criminal groups in Mexico, Central and South America, as at least 80% of all undocumented immigrants making their way to the U.S. rely on smugglers to navigate treacherous paths.
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