Note to readers: Coverage of President Trump's inauguration and day-one executives orders is at this link.
Although Donald Trump's election victory uncorked the biggest weekly S&P 500 point gain in more than four years, fueled by expectations of tax cuts and deregulation, investors have been looking toward Inauguration Day with some trepidation. The worry is that the President-elect, after taking the oath of office today, will immediately begin to make good on some potentially disruptive campaign promises with day one executive orders, including vows to impose broad-based tariffs and carry out mass deportations.
To say that Trump plans to hit the ground running would be an understatement. Trump said he intends to sign close to 100 executive orders and related actions before heading to the inaugural balls. By comparison, President Biden issued 17 such orders on his first day, which was said to be a record.
Other Trump executive orders are expected to give TikTok a reprieve, ease regulation of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, and lift energy restrictions. Many of the executive orders could have implications for Wall Street, including specific companies such as Tesla, Cheniere Energy and Meta Platforms.
On Wednesday, even before taking office, Trump posted, "WE HAVE A DEAL FOR THE HOSTAGES IN THE MIDDLE EAST," a reference to nearly 100 hostages still being held in Gaza who were taken from Israel by Hamas, including seven Americans. The Biden administration has also played a role in the diplomacy to reach a cease-fire, which Israel is expected to approve on Thursday. Trump had said there would be "hell to pay," if hostages weren't released by the time he took office.
Trump Day One Agenda: Trade
In late November 2024, Trump vowed to impose a 10% additional tariff on China, along with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, on his first day back in office, citing fentanyl shipments and illegal migration. Some analysts speculated that was a negotiating tactic, particularly after he seemed to declare victory after top officials in Mexico and Canada signaled their cooperation.
However, Trump confirmed that bigger tariffs are coming in a post last week. "We will begin charging those that make money off us with Trade, and they will start paying, FINALLY, their fare share."
In the same post, Trump announced, effective Jan. 20, the creation of the "External Revenue Service," which is clearly meant to sound less threatening than the Internal Revenue Service, though the tariffs would be paid by U.S. importers, not foreign exporters. Tariffs and import duties are currently collected by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Immigration, Border Security
Trump advisers have indicated that Trump will sign an array of border-related executive orders on day one to "seal the border shut and begin the largest deportation operation in American history." Still, it's unclear how far-reaching the deportations will be.
After news reports revealed that immigration raids were set to begin in Chicago this week, the incoming Trump administration is reportedly rethinking its initial plan.
Trump and his advisers had said that the initial focus will be removing unauthorized immigrants who have committed crimes and recent arrivals. Axios has reported that of 1.8 million cases in immigration courts in fiscal 2024, only about 8,400 involved crimes other than entering the U.S. illegally.
While many businesses worry about potential labor shortages, some companies may thrive under tougher immigration rules. Shares of Geo Group and CoreCivic have soared since Election Day on expectations for detention centers.
Other day one executive actions may involve reviving Trump's first-term policies that Biden scrapped, including the building of a wall; Title 42 blanket asylum denial for public health reasons; and a travel ban from Muslim-majority countries.
Trump also pledged to sign an order ending birthright citizenship for foreigners born in the U.S., though such a move will be challenged in the courts as running counter to the 14th Amendment.
Trump Executive Orders On Energy
One of Trump's oft-stated pledges during the campaign was to end what he calls the "electric vehicle mandate," which refers to Department of Transportation fuel-efficiency rules that impose heavy fines on automakers whose new-vehicle fleet falls short of target, on average. The latest Biden administration standard would lift average fuel economy to 50 miles per gallon by 2031.
Rolling back fuel-efficiency rules could have a mixed impact on Tesla, run by key Trump ally Elon Musk.
At a rally in Phoenix in December, Trump said he would "end all Biden restrictions on energy production" on his first day in office. That includes reopening Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and ending Biden's paused approval of additional liquefied natural gas export projects.
Energy stocks have rallied in recent weeks amid rebounding oil and natural gas prices. Cheniere Energy, a big LNG play, has surged to start the new year.
Trump And Musk Race To Slash Government And Save The S&P 500
Trump Executive Order On TikTok
Trump indicated over the weekend that he'll issue an order granting TikTok up to 90 days before it faces a possible ban. Congress last year passed a law requiring China's Bytedance to divest TikTok by Jan. 19, a day before Trump's inauguration, or face a U.S. ban of the social media site.
Trump elaborated in a Truth Social post that the U.S. should get 50% ownership of TikTok if he saves the company.
Keeping TikTok online would negate a big potential boost for Meta's Facebook and Instagram and for Snapchat parent Snap.
Bitcoin, Crypto
Trump has big plans for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, including potentially establishing a bitcoin strategic reserve. However, bitcoin and crypto are late additions to Trump's list of first-day agenda items, according to news reports this week. The scope of the first-day order isn't yet clear, but anticipating has been building after the launch of the official $Trump meme coin exploded to reach a $10 billion market valuation.
Federal Regulations
In a late October speech, Trump promised a first-day executive order "directing every federal agency to immediately remove every single burdensome regulation driving up the cost of goods."
Trump has also said his administration will cull 10 regulations for every one it passes, after setting a 2-1 ratio in his first term, and he has enlisted Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to go on a crusade against the regulatory state as chairs of the Department of Government Efficiency.
Jan. 6
Trump has promised to pardon his supporters who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6. On NBC's Meet The Press in December, he said that even those who engaged in violence against police officers merited pardons. However, JD Vance, his soon-to-be vice president, said recently that those who committed acts of violence shouldn't be pardoned.
Education, Gender Identity
One of Trump's most frequent day-one promises was to withhold federal funding from schools that teach critical race theory or have vaccine mandates, according to Axios, Presumably, Trump was alluding to Covid vaccines. All states have requirements that children are vaccinated against measles, mumps and rubella, for example.
Trump has also pledged first-day orders directing that transsexual individuals be prohibited from participating in women's sports or serving in the military.
Ukraine
The day-one pledge made most often by Trump, according to Axios, was to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine. However, Trump has already acknowledged that won't happen on schedule, saying at a January press conference that he hopes to get the job done within six months.
