The Conservatives are set to slump to just three seats in Greater London according to the latest large-scale poll by Survation ahead of Thursday’s general election.
From 20 constituencies in the outgoing Parliament, the Tories will hold on to just Chelsea & Fulham, Sutton & Cheam, and Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner, the MRP poll forecast.
But even those races are tight, especially in Chelsea & Fulham, with Conservative London minister Greg Hands holding a projected vote share of 37.0% to 35.6% for Labour’s Ben Coleman.
It is the only MRP poll so far to make Chelsea & Fulham a Tory hold. It comes with Mr Hands fighting a fierce offensive to woo the constituency’s many parents who educate their children privately, amid Labour plans to stop a VAT exemption on independent school fees.
Among true blue seats set to flip to Labour in the Survation survey are Orpington, Bromley & Biggin Hill and Hornchurch & Upminster.
Labour is also projected to fend off independent challenges from its former leader Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North and from Faiza Shaheen in Chingford & Woodford Green, where former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith is tipped to lose.
The Survation survey gives a strong showing in many areas to Reform UK. It was conducted from June 15 to July 1, and may not fully reflect the impact of Channel 4 footage aired on June 27 that showed activists in Nigel Farage’s party venting racist and homophobic views.
It offers an even more dire picture of Tory fortunes than other recent MRP polls.
According to YouGov, the party will be left with just six London constituencies: Bromley & Biggin Hill, Finchley & Golders Green, Hornchurch & Upminster, Orpington, Romford, and Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner.
The Conservatives would be wiped out in Inner London in the YouGov poll, losing Cities of London & Westminster, Chelsea & Fulham, and the new constituency of Kensington & Bayswater.
Another MRP poll by Ipsos puts Rishi Sunak’s party down to just four seats in the capital: Orpington, Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner, Romford, and Sutton & Cheam.
Ahead of Thursday’s election, the Standard has published an interactive map of the battle in every London seat.
